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Investment value of different Lambo models.

5K views 28 replies 17 participants last post by  surfah 
#1 ·
I am wondering what everyones opinion on the investment value of various models and submodels in todays market. 1. Countaches have gone up pretty dramatically in the last 8 years but should hold or continue to increase. They are Iconic, V12 and the first real supercar. Lots of collectability. The Jalpa although overshadowed by the countach has still seen 3 to 4x appreciation . It is more rare and pretty cheap at 100K . Lots of room for upside. Diablos have also almost tripled. Relatively rare, v12 and the last hand made cars. Good solid store of value. I think in the later models that early Murcies, std transmission 2wd , LP 640s etc are pretty solid buys. They are in the 150 to 200k range and seem to have really flattened out. Since they are great cars, pretty rare and V-12s I don't think they will go much lower. There were a lot of Gallardos made and they are still dropping. Great cars but I think only certain models will not drop more. They should still start to flatten out well under a hundred. What about Aventadors? I think they are a pretty good buy in the low 200s and will drop some but not too much more. Maybe 175 K. I would love everyones thoughts. Lee
 
#2 ·
I think what comes out next will definitely sway values of the newer model cars. Knowing Lamborghini, they will come out with something really cool and it will affect the values, but as far as AV goes, I think nice later model cars will still hold good value..my guess somewhere in the 250k range. Huracans are undoubtedly going to drop, and my guess is in the next 2 years they will be sub 150k cars. Can't speak to the older model cars as I know nothing about them aside from the value exploding in the last decade.

I will say that oncoming recession will play a part in values in the short term and it would be a good idea to scoop up some cars during...and buildings, never hurts to own more buildings.
 
#3 ·
If you would have told me 10 years ago what Countache's sell for now I would have said your crazy. I know I said "no" to one for $39k and what are they now hitting on $500k...why??? Or early air cooled 911's or VW buses??? So nope, I am definitely not going to even try and predict the future prices of car. I just buy what I like, if it goes up OK, if it goes down that's OK too.
 
#4 ·
I would say those with the lowest production numbers and highest tier models - e.g. Murcielago and not Gallardo. That's for both absolute $ amounts as well as changes in %. Granted, I'm biased being a Murcie owner, but that's also the reason I only considered a Murcie.
 
#5 ·
I think certain Murci models will keep increasing, they seem to have a timeless exotic look & probably the best (stock) exhaust note.
Aventadors? hard to say. With so many variants at the moment 1st Gen AV, SV, AVs, SVJ all based on the same basic design coupled with facia modifications. I think the SV roadsters will be more valuable in the long run because of the look and the LE status.
Now I'm a bit jaded here but I still like the 1st gen AV look over just about all of the AV variants because of the clean look. I think they made around 4500 1st Gen Aventadors from 2012 to 2017 which is not a hugh number but in the exotic market is enough to dilute the pricing...
 
#16 ·
I think certain Murci models will keep increasing, they seem to have a timeless exotic look & probably the best (stock) exhaust note.
Aventadors? hard to say. With so many variants at the moment 1st Gen AV, SV, AVs, SVJ all based on the same basic design coupled with facia modifications. I think the SV roadsters will be more valuable in the long run because of the look and the LE status.
Now I'm a bit jaded here but I still like the 1st gen AV look over just about all of the AV variants because of the clean look. I think they made around 4500 1st Gen Aventadors from 2012 to 2017 which is not a hugh number but in the exotic market is enough to dilute the pricing...
Absolutely.
 
#6 · (Edited)
I think we are at the start of a "market adjustment". Auction sales at Monterey were down around 35% on average from Hagerty estimated values according to a Hagerty article. Lamborghini results were down from last year.

I think your logic is sound for which models will go up. I think things are going to swing down if this recession they keep talking about happens. The last couple years there was a lot of talk about how crazy exotic car price increases had been. I think prices will slump if the economy slumps.

I think prices on everything Lamborghini are going to go down before they come back up.

2 months ago a Jalpa sold for 87K on Bring a Trailer. A similar one sold on ebay in the mid 50K range (54K I think) just a couple weeks ago. Things are changing right now.

Just my 2 cents....
 
#7 · (Edited)
The sad thing is that the economy is in record territory all across the board. If the media would report honestly on the statistics, we would do even better. Is all it takes to start a recession is to convince everyone that one is coming. It amazes me that political parties are willing to crash the economy and cause a lot of suffering for the American people and rest of the world to cause a change in power. If you look back over the last 100 years, boom and bust cycles tend to follow politics both ways. I remember 2007 and early 2008 in the housing market. It was not that bad until they started screaming recession from the rooftops. Look at what that caused. It caused a shift in political power but also the worst economy since the great depression. Fear is what causes recessions fueled by unscrupulous politicians and media.The problem with starting a fire is that it may grow much larger and burn longer than they planned. It worries me since I am in a business heavily dependent on large ticket purchases. I guess I will wait and see what prices do for the next 6 months . I want another car but it is just a toy so why not wait and buy it cheap. Maybe we will see some 60 K Murcies. I will load up. Lee
 
#8 ·
You know Lee......Someday I wish you'd post something I didn't agree with. Sadly today is not that day. :(
 
#9 ·
Media definitely makes things worse, but I think the economic cooling off is based on more than just media hype. My wife works for a huge multinational corporation. They had a couple record years, but based on all of their indicators, they are preparing for a slump. I think it is just part of the normal economic cycle.

If you want my 2 cents on investment values, I think the Countach is going to be the biggest one to gain followed by the Diablo. Gallardo and Murcialago are going to grow much slower for several years yet. I think the rest of the line up is going to stay pretty flat.
 
#10 ·
Media definitely makes things worse, but I think the economic cooling off is based on more than just media hype. My wife works for a huge multinational corporation. They had a couple record years, but based on all of their indicators, they are preparing for a slump. I think it is just part of the normal economic cycle.
Agree market correction is normal and trying to prop up the economy by cutting interest rates may not be sound long-term strategy. The trade war with China is already affecting industries such as construction, automobile sales, etc. Will only get worse as more tariffs kick in this Sunday and in December.
 
#11 ·
On the topic at hand, the newer models you mentioned have zero investment potential right now. They are still going to depreciate a decent amount. The Murcielago and Gallardo have pretty much bottomed out on the depreciation, making them a safe buy but not necessarily a sound investment. The more limited versions including the gated manuals are seeing more appreciation and will likely continue to do so. The Countach and Diablo have already taken decent jumps and I don’t feel are likely to jump up again soon. The biggest potential for investment is a later model gated LP Murcielago if you can still find one reasonably priced.
 
#12 · (Edited)
I feel that the Countaches and Diablos are a little high as well and likely to flat line for a while. One of the cars I have been most interested in are the gated manual murcies. I drove a 2013 Aventador today and like the power and acceleration. It is however not the same raw feel as a manual transmission. I did notice that they are pretty rough riding or stiff compared to the older cars. That may be just a suspension tuning issue. I am a lot more familiar with the older cars than the new ones. Lee
 
#13 · (Edited)
Rek, thanks for the vote of confidence. My point is that throughout history , perception is often much more important than reality. When I googled recession , I found multiple sites predicting housing slowdowns in the next year or two. The data in fact is just the opposite. Housing inventories are at record low levels with a forecast for strong demand into the near future. I am in the land development business and indicators are very strong. As far as China is concerned, I have been there multiple times and imported direct for years. The Chinese government is involved and even sponsors wholesale theft of trademark. patent and intellectual property. It is ridiculous the amount of "pirate" products being sold in China openly even in government owned stores. Programs are copied in mass and trademarks mean nothing. Videos are copied with impunity. I applaud someone for taking a stand against the wholesale theft of the products and services created by American and European companies. Although the trade war may have short term negative impact, China is heavily dependent on the US market and destined to lose in the long run. Chinese exports to the US are 5 times what they import. If they would stop copying and stealing US patents and trademarks, our exports to China would grow exponentially. If you have never been there it is impossible to grasp the extent of the problem. There are literally millions of products being sold in China as if they were the real thing. From Apple I pads to Levis they look identical till they break or come apart in short order. Putting those products into the Chinese and world market damages the reputation of the brand and takes sales away from the real company. Lee
 
#15 ·
Maybe before we shut China down fully they could mass produce some OEM parts for Diablo‘s ...... if they could do so with decent quality.

To your point Lee about housing and land values, what you’re finding right now is a lot of cash on the sidelines expecting the same thing: a pull back on asset values. Our cars, at least the lower production models, will have a floor to them because they will pull back in value and someone will come in with cash sensing a bargain. Higher production cars will fall faster and harder in my opinion.

Another point not often discussed is the general buyer for a new Lamborghini model will hold that car for one to three years whereas my sense is buyers of lower production volume models or older Lamborghini models will tend to hold onto them much longer and be less affected by near term value fluctuations.
 
#17 ·
Any manual car will increase in value compare to their egear counterpart.

Car that has not gone up in value dramatically is gated PreLP gallardo. Steady increasing in value.

Manual cars that shot up
murci
diablo,
LP gallardos

Mass produced cars like Huracan and AV will keep dropping as new models come out.
NA V10s and V12s might be going away for hybrid models to accommodate EU regulations.

To me all new cars are starting to look the same and do not feel as raw.
 
#18 · (Edited)
Thanks for the responses. My problem is right now I might get the aventador as part of a bigger deal.It will be hard to turn down if it comes as a throw in at a great value. My son has graciously offered to drive it to the car meets where we take the Jalpa. He pointed out that I am very protective of the Jalpa and cant drive both.
I completely agree that manuals will stay strong. They are just too much fun to drive.

As far as China is concerned, they are way too dependent on US exports. There will be lots of chest puffing and then probably mid year next year there will be an historic trade deal...…. just in time for the fall election.(In my humble opinion) Whether you like or dislike this president , he understands international business and economics. We are in a very very strong negotiating position. It is like poker holding 3 kings calling all in. There is no need to bluff. We can subsidize the farmers with the tariffs which account for a large part of the export market to China. It will hurt for a little while but we should win big in the long run. I was in International business for 20 years (before the internet)when you had to fly over and negotiate with people. Chinese always negotiate very hard and act as if they will not accept your deal. In the end if it makes sense for them you give up a little something and get your deal. The Taiwanese have known this for years and often bring lavish gifts to factory owners to secure their deals. Often a rolex , diamond ring , car or other such present will get it done. The biggest problem with lambo parts (or anything) out of China is quality control. You almost need your own agent there to watch everything and insure it is made as specified. Lee PS just a funny after thought. It is not unusual to start negotiation in a Chinese retail market at $100 and end up at $10 with them telling you they will not eat that night. It is all part of the game. My daughter was better than I because she would hold out for the last penny. I usually caved at 20 or $25 getting tired of negotiating. For them it is a way of life.
 
#19 ·
I think you are wrong, there will not be a historic deal with China, China can just wait it out for the next president. Deal will be made because trump will cave, they have his balls..that is why he is making **** up about phone calls..all he is doing is manipulating the market. He did this all wrong! TPP was there as a check on China, yes it was flawed but could've worked out the kinks instead dropping it..You are right, China is freaking theft machine..we could've done this with all our allies pressuring China, instead Mr I alone can fix it showed all his cards and Xi is just fukin with him..mark my words he will cut a ****ty deal to save his face!
 
#20 ·
Lambo resale prices in the US and worldwide are heavily dependent on 2 factors.

1. Quantity.
2. Engine size.

* Big engine + small volume = soaring future price

A V12, with less than 50 made globally, restricted to VVIPs, is the unicorn.

For example, the Centenario Roadster (20-40 units globally) has doubled from roughly US$2m in 2017 to US$4m in 2019, even in today's falling supercar market.

The V10s tend to follow an L-shaped, or Nike tick-shape, price curve.

For example, the Gallardo STS (100-150 units globally) went from roughly US$260k at launch in 2011, to a trough circa US$200k in 2015, and currently US$250-300k in 2019.

Conclusion = buy a V12 (or the upcoming electric halo model) with less than 50 sold worldwide, for investment. Everything else = buy for fun.
 
#22 ·
I agree. I think Countaches are iconic and destined to be a piece of automotive history. As far as China is concerned we shall see. Maybe I am wrong and maybe not. We can check in about August of next year and see. Lee
 
#24 ·
Thanks. Is yours a gated manual? I have been test driving an Aventador for several days and wonder how it compares with the Murcie. It is really fast but I like to shift and the paddles just don't seem the same.
 
#25 ·
I’m happy the huracan will be dropping in price, I hope to add one in the near future. The added reliability and cheaper maintenance will be welcomed. As far as collectibility goes, I’d be surprised if lambo doesn’t take a page out of Porsche’s book with more limited models. Lambo I think has done a good job as far as sticking to their guns and not going too off the wall with overall exterior changes. Ferrari seems to be going in the opposite direction
 
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