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Which will prevail ?

  • Battery Power

    Votes: 3 20.0%
  • Hydrogen Fuel Cell

    Votes: 5 33.3%
  • Other type 'experimental' power or Fuel Cell

    Votes: 7 46.7%

Will Electric cars become obsolete as often as our phones and computers?

4K views 43 replies 10 participants last post by  MITengineer 
#1 ·
#2 ·
I am sure the electric car batteries today will become obsolete in near future. They’re too big, heavy and what will we do with waste once they start dying? Lamborghini is using super capacitors in the Sian.
 
#3 ·
There are so many technologies on the table, and this sudden scramble I fear may cause problems down the road. Investments in charging stations may fizzle out when something better comes out. Who's making the decisions on Standards, just like they had to do with OBD II and now what will happen to that....... kind of scary IMO
 
#5 ·
Look at the solar panel industry. Panels made 5 years ago are garbage compared to what’s being produced today.

the key to sustainability is a car design that allows the power source to be swapped out, I.e. modular design such that any power source can be swapped in, in a matter of hours.

fun times we are living
 
#6 ·
Batteries historically improve about 7% per year - so it's not exactly Moore's law, but rather than steady progress. Given technology is becoming a larger part of new car sales anyways, cars are becoming "obselete" sooner along a host of dimensions anyways. I worked in Li-Ion battery manufacturing in 2009-2011, it was entirely predictable cost curves would come down as people are historically very bad at understanding compounding. 10 years later costs have halved as expected and the leap to electrification is now obvious.
 
#15 ·
I agree with this. In general I don't think EV's will become any more obsolete than they're equivalent size/price IC engine lineage though battery replacements are inevitable as a maintenance item. There are a lot of other things and features that people want as cars evolve, things that a car without is then perceived as old and becomes obsolete. Recent examples I'd say are key-less go/push button start, bluetooth connectivity, reverse cameras (now mandated), large center infotainment screens, Apple Carplay, driver assist features, LCD gauge clusters, etc. All of these types of things combined is what drives cars to become obsolete.

Also comparing value of all of one manufacturer's vehicles to a specific, high end model of another's (ie "Teslas versus Hellcats") is not a good indicator of the depreciation disparity (if in fact any exists) between current EV and IC engine vehicles.
 
#8 ·
Look at the resale value of Teslas versus Hellcats.
Hellcats are being bought, now, used, at more than was paid for them, new.
Teslas? LOL
LOL
and LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
You get maybe 1/3 of what you paid.
Yikes, good point.... my garage is full, everything is paid off except for the Daily Driver. I'm satisfied for now so I think I'll just sit back and watch the mystery unfold over the next few years.
Can it be those who have an affinity for new tech / electric cars are already driving them? More and more are going to enter the market and the vast majority of people will be so afraid of them they won't sell. The used car market will flourish and then maybe new problems will arise:
1) The Government will pay (as the trend is right now) and subsidize these new hybrid/electric car sales..... like some program to pay for half of your new car. Why not, it's in their plan to pay for all this other crap.
2) They will Force it upon us by implementing some Outrageous GAS TAX. $6, $7, $8 a gallon.... WHAT?
 
#9 ·
It’ll be horse for courses for me…
EVO RWD for weekend fun and glorious soundtrack
keeping my S Cab for long trips in comfort and no worrying about charging
I‘d consider an EV as a city car, where I don’t worry about range, can charge at home and can avoid creepy gas stations, but my little Subaru SUV is cheap to operate, will last 200K miles, and can drive in any weather… so any EV has to compete with Subie’s value proposition. I doubt I’ll have an EV any time soon…
 
#10 ·
I think people planning on going electric should hold off for a bit longer. There is some new stuff coming that will be improved improved over current models. Keep you eye on Ford.
 
#21 ·
I think you're missing the point. The Hellcat is not a commercial success despite its high residual - there's just not enough broad market demand. The Model 3/Model Y sell hundreds of thousands of units and the market sees enough of a future in the Tesla lineup that its currently the most valuable automotive company ever by a factor of 2X.

Its natural for all of these cars to become obsolete over time.
 
#22 ·
Go ahead people, VOTE....it's private. So far 479 views and only 8 votes ?? Everybody on the fence about the whole thing !
 
#29 ·
I've got a modded Hellcat Redeye that I absolutely love and the dealership experience is top notch but my dream is a Lambo. I wasn't planning on moving out of the Redeye (10.2 1/4 and 2.61 0-60) anytime soon but since Lambo announced they're going electric I'm pulling the cord and planning on ordering a 2022 within the next couple of months. To answer your question, everyone at some point should own a Wrangler in their life, been there done that twice. Ford F150 is freaking solid but I am now leaning toward Ram in the future thanks to my awesome Dodge experience. So, there are a few, I hope I didn't offend anybody being that we are owners of domestic products!!!
 
#33 ·
@FontusBluG, not for anything but if @AngelOfMurci gets $10 I want at least $20.........no, no make it $30.
I’ll stuff the ballot box for $40
Ok, OK........ I get it. I agree, it's like pulling teeth to make a decision yet about what could possibly be the best route forward there.... I say the ICE will always rule for maximum overall intrinsic driver experience. We just have to figure out what is tolerable to drive for basic daily transportation. I guess it's time we have to make some sacrifices for the longevity of mankind......geez, what are the grandkids in for? Whenever a discussion like this gets going anybody else think of that RUSH song 'Red Barchetta' !! That song came out in 1981 ......
Lyrics
My uncle has a country place
No one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the "Motor Law"
And on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the turbine freight
To far outside the wire
Where my white-haired uncle waits
Jump to the ground
As the turbo slows to cross the borderline
Run like the wind
As excitement shivers up and down my spine
Down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me an old machine
For 50 odd years
To keep it as new has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant red Barchetta
From a better vanished time
We fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime
Wind in my hair
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge
Well-weathered leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air
Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware
Suddenly ahead of me
Across the mountainside
A gleaming alloy air car
Shoots towards me, two lanes wide
I spin around with shrieking tires
To run the deadly race
Go screaming through the valley
As another joins the chase
Drive like the wind
Straining the limits of machine and man
Laughing out loud with fear and hope
I've got a desperate plan
At the one-lane bridge
I leave the giants stranded at the riverside
Race back to the farm
To dream with my uncle at the fireside

A classic rock song that had some uncanny insight into the future we are beginning to experience
 
#35 ·
Haha. You are correct, I love that song but I just figured there are some who could care less about it. Plus, you really have to carefully listen to it (several times I did) to get the full understanding of it. Decided might be better to make my point clear to all with a visual (even the 13 year olds can read by now I hope) (y)
 
#41 ·
I'm pointing out that branding something as not being a "commercial success" based on number sold eliminates almost all exotic cars and super-luxury cars as not being "commercially successful."

It just seemed to me a dismissive knee-jerk emotion-based reaction to do so, because facts certainly do not bear it out. Something being a commercial success is not based entirely on the number sold, in absolute terms. Something can be deemed commercially successful if it has helped to saturate a market, leaving most of the customers who wanted something in that segment choosing that particular product.

One cannot claim that customized Boeing 747's are not commercially successful because so few are ordered. Did everyone who wanted one and had the means get one? Did Boeing make a profit on the ones they sold? If so, then they are commercially successful, in spite of selling in smaller numbers than, for example, extra-small condoms.
 
#42 ·
I'm pointing out that branding something as not being a "commercial success" based on number sold eliminates almost all exotic cars and super-luxury cars as not being "commercially successful."

It just seemed to me a dismissive knee-jerk emotion-based reaction to do so, because facts certainly do not bear it out. Something being a commercial success is not based entirely on the number sold, in absolute terms. Something can be deemed commercially successful if it has helped to saturate a market, leaving most of the customers who wanted something in that segment choosing that particular product.

One cannot claim that customized Boeing 747's are not commercially successful because so few are ordered. Did everyone who wanted one and had the means get one? Did Boeing make a profit on the ones they sold? If so, then they are commercially successful, in spite of selling in smaller numbers than, for example, extra-small condoms.
I think you're entitled to your opinion and I respect that. I consider a commercial success a business that has viable growth, good margins or a pathway to good margins, and unit volumes to reach large scale. Custom 747's, Exotic Car Companies (with exception), and Chargers don't fit this category.
 
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