Where will lambo prices and the economy be next year
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Have you looked at the Huracan pricing bubble thread, check the link below, now at 130 pages long. Up here in Canada early this year we generally predicted price drops because there were less than 20 H for sale then all of a sudden it went up to 70. Prices skyrocketed at the same time, the H I was aiming for in 2021 was 215K CAD and now 2 of them are 290-300K. My new prediction is they will remain exaggerated until the new generation of H become easy to obtain. Dealers do not care one bit if they don't sell.
www.lamborghini-talk.com
Huracan pricing bubble
Yep all true. Thus far my dealer isn’t making me sign a a FROR contract for my performante order at MSRP but I picked up my F8 Saturday for MSRP and for the first time ever the dealer made me sign one for a year for MSRP buyback
www.lamborghini-talk.com
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interest rates go raised 7 times this year (the fed. rev. mentioned earlier this year their goal of raising it 8-9 times) so not too far off. real estate market has slowed down considerably - no more homes selling over ask and none have sold in 3 days. They are now taking 3-6 months or more and people are having to reduce prices. I know realtors where I am, and many of the older ones are retiring. Lots of people have gone into debt over the last to years to make ends meet.
the stock market is slowing doing down but going down none the less. then there is inflation.
if hyperinflation keeps happening with the devaluation of the dollar - prices will maintain or increase due to losing purchasing power.
if interest rates keep going up and make it impossible for people to borrow and reign in the money creation - then they will go down like real estate.
We have not hit the bottom yet. more like we are just over the peak and on the start of the down-turn.
the stock market is slowing doing down but going down none the less. then there is inflation.
if hyperinflation keeps happening with the devaluation of the dollar - prices will maintain or increase due to losing purchasing power.
if interest rates keep going up and make it impossible for people to borrow and reign in the money creation - then they will go down like real estate.
We have not hit the bottom yet. more like we are just over the peak and on the start of the down-turn.
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I'm sure the prices will recorrect themselves 'a little' next year due to rising rates. But the phase won't continue for long as things will keep on rising. Inflation, materials scarcity, and lack of energy are still prevalent. Europe is very cold this winter.
What Russia do next year will determine world's prices. And of course, don't forget that virus still goes uncontrolled in China despite vaccines.
What Russia do next year will determine world's prices. And of course, don't forget that virus still goes uncontrolled in China despite vaccines.
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When it comes to Huracans I have now started to track highest and lowest bid per version on a weekly basis…
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Lee i feel we will have a life changing event happening soon in the world.
All this nonsense that central banks are doing is planned because they know this system will blow up
sooner then later and that’s when they will force us into cbdc and basically taking our wealth
and police us with the digital coins they will push on us by giving most of the sheep free cbdc to get them
hooked just like stimilus checks.
As of prices i don’t feel they will crash like 2008 ….assets will soften but not crash.
Remember assets didn’t go up in price our money is worthless.
All this nonsense that central banks are doing is planned because they know this system will blow up
sooner then later and that’s when they will force us into cbdc and basically taking our wealth
and police us with the digital coins they will push on us by giving most of the sheep free cbdc to get them
hooked just like stimilus checks.
As of prices i don’t feel they will crash like 2008 ….assets will soften but not crash.
Remember assets didn’t go up in price our money is worthless.
I think the next year will be interesting for car prices.
Interest rates effect everything - ability to buy cars, employment, and the amount of revenue business owners will see.
Normal cars have lots of downward pressure. Wholesale prices have already been coming down like 1% a week for months. Trade in values coming down. Carvana collapsing which will have a big effect. Carvana has offered significantly more to purchase cars than everyone else. I imagine everyone else was offering more than they normally would to try to be competitive. If Carvana is gone, they can pull back even more. If Carvana needs to liquidate their billions in inventory quick, that will make a difference in pricing for the overall market.
Effecting all cars is interest rates on floor plans. I expect as dealers become underwater on their inventory as their holding costs increase we will see lots of dealers fall.
In the high end and exotic market we saw a lot of people buying cars because while they may have had a mild interest in it, they really just thought it was a good investment. What do people do with bad investments when they have no emotional attachment to them? They sell.
There are so many of these modern cars made now. I remember in the 991.2 era there would be dealers with like 9 GT3 RS's on the lot. Are we really better off financially in a sustainable way than before covid?
At a minimum I think car prices are going back to normal. I think there is a strong likelihood they will go below normal because people don't want to catch a falling knife, and also don't feel anywhere near as wealthy as their house has lost 100's of thousand in value, stock holdings will be down quite a bit from peak, crypto down quite a bit, spectre of layoffs.
Some very special cars may continue to trade at increasing prices, but I'm talking cars way more special than an STO or SVJ.
Interest rates effect everything - ability to buy cars, employment, and the amount of revenue business owners will see.
Normal cars have lots of downward pressure. Wholesale prices have already been coming down like 1% a week for months. Trade in values coming down. Carvana collapsing which will have a big effect. Carvana has offered significantly more to purchase cars than everyone else. I imagine everyone else was offering more than they normally would to try to be competitive. If Carvana is gone, they can pull back even more. If Carvana needs to liquidate their billions in inventory quick, that will make a difference in pricing for the overall market.
Effecting all cars is interest rates on floor plans. I expect as dealers become underwater on their inventory as their holding costs increase we will see lots of dealers fall.
In the high end and exotic market we saw a lot of people buying cars because while they may have had a mild interest in it, they really just thought it was a good investment. What do people do with bad investments when they have no emotional attachment to them? They sell.
There are so many of these modern cars made now. I remember in the 991.2 era there would be dealers with like 9 GT3 RS's on the lot. Are we really better off financially in a sustainable way than before covid?
At a minimum I think car prices are going back to normal. I think there is a strong likelihood they will go below normal because people don't want to catch a falling knife, and also don't feel anywhere near as wealthy as their house has lost 100's of thousand in value, stock holdings will be down quite a bit from peak, crypto down quite a bit, spectre of layoffs.
Some very special cars may continue to trade at increasing prices, but I'm talking cars way more special than an STO or SVJ.
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I share in the above 100%
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Hyperinflation... some of us have been watching too much TV. Overall prices increasing at 50% a month? Difficult as it is, we should try not to get sucked into media hyperbole. Inflation in the US currently 7.1% (crested at 9.1%) and in Canada 6.8%. No matter how much one distrusts government and its data, this is not hyperinflation. Above average inflation, yes. Hyper, no.
Stagflation, another nebulous term being slinged around. Our fearless trustworthy elected leaders can't even agree on a definition for "recession". Buzzword bingo can be fun, but moreso after a significant amount of alcohol.
Challenging economic environment, certainly. Worldwide economic armageddon or at least depression? Eh.
Car prices, like everything else traded in a public market, are subject to the laws of supply and demand. Currently lots of demand, not a lot of supply. Absolutely car market is returning to normal. Every car dealer I've interacted with can tell.
Prediction: well maintained desirable Lamborghini prices will remain high. At or above MSRP for the next three years. However, the range of values will increase greatly. Less maintained and higher mile exotics drop 20% over two years.
Stagflation, another nebulous term being slinged around. Our fearless trustworthy elected leaders can't even agree on a definition for "recession". Buzzword bingo can be fun, but moreso after a significant amount of alcohol.
Challenging economic environment, certainly. Worldwide economic armageddon or at least depression? Eh.
Car prices, like everything else traded in a public market, are subject to the laws of supply and demand. Currently lots of demand, not a lot of supply. Absolutely car market is returning to normal. Every car dealer I've interacted with can tell.
Prediction: well maintained desirable Lamborghini prices will remain high. At or above MSRP for the next three years. However, the range of values will increase greatly. Less maintained and higher mile exotics drop 20% over two years.
Regarding inflation in general, I think the headline number will continue down because the heaviest weight items are on their way down. Also, recession that will see a steady increase in unemployment.
However, I think some things where demand is more inelastic, like food, will continue to increase.
I expect many victory laps from the government as the headline number goes down while the average American just feels poorer.
However, I think some things where demand is more inelastic, like food, will continue to increase.
I expect many victory laps from the government as the headline number goes down while the average American just feels poorer.
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I don't think interest rates will have as much of an affect on Lambos/Supercars as many think. I know a few dealers and they all say 80%+ of the cars under $100k (BMWs, Land Rovers etc) are financed, which is slowing down sales as interest rates rise. Those above $100k+ are still mainly cash deals. People buying these cars are generally able to afford them comfortably.
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I don’t think the Lamborghini prices will go down too much in general. You aren’t going to be able to buy naturally aspirated V10s or V12s anymore from Lamborghini, and they’re going to be very desirable for years to come imo. I personally disagree that the new hybrid cars will bring the current model prices down. Most of the gear heads I know don’t want hybrid vehicles they’ve got to plug in and I think that alone will keep prices strong. We shall see though.
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Plug in , maybe not 😉.
3 years of deposits for AVR as of 8/31/2022 before depositors have seen the car ? That in itself tells a big story .
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how? I have not had a TV in close to a decade...
explain then the currency expansion of the Weimer Republic, the Hungarian Pengo and more recent like Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
Actual inflation is not at 6.8, 7.1 or 9.1% - that is a joke! It is way higher. They do not want to tell people the actual number just like they did not want to admit we're already in a recession as the power to be changed the definition at the 3 month mark of a negative market.
They are lying about employment numbers, salaries....
They need a problem (from the system imploding) to propose a solution (CBDC's) when the people are most desperate. the same CBDC's will be tied to the whole internet of things including the digital ID...etc.
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hate to break it to you but same could be said about straight 8 engines. They were extremely popular in the pre-war period in the USA. Then post war they all bit fizzled out by the mid 50's. Sure the V8 at that time started to take over BUT they lacked the torque and the sound of the straight 8's.
Not to detract from this thread so maybe dm me
The answer
Who are your sources for, and what are the accurate numbers for inflation and unemployment.
Don't think of it just in terms of the only transaction being the purchase of the car. That money has to come from somewhere. The business owner paying cash may have reduced revenue because his customers are hurting from the effects of interest rates. Some of his clients may have been laid off, some may have been planning to finance his services and now can't afford it.
Executives/management who get a lot of their income from RSU's have found the value of their shares greatly reduced. Much of that is due to interest rates hitting the stock market.
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Ironically, I said exactly what you said around 9 months ago on my “when easy money walks away”… the precise reason why I’ve b-slapped the markets
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FYI, my real estate taxes went up 15% this year, despite a major slump in home prices.
You can look here for stats:
Alternate Inflation Charts
www.shadowstats.com
He charts out inflation based on the 1980 standard. It's funny how often people were saying our inflation the past couple years has been the highest in 40 years. If you judge them by the same standard, our inflation was much higher recently and the highest since 1947.
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