[AngelOfMurci]

I am NOT an economist, but it’s nearly impossible to see how housing would drop anything like it did in 2008. The fundamentals are far different. I wish this chart was indexed for households. By any measure, the last decade saw a housing deficit of around 4-5M homes. There‘s no available slack in housing. The supply/demand dynamic is markedly different than 2008.

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units

View data of the total number of new privately owned homes that began construction in a given month, used as an indicator of economic strength.

fred.stlouisfed.org

View attachment 313102

The market is decidedly different.
We now have 9% inflation, a world wide pandemic, WW3 starting, world starvation, 6% interest rates going to 10% asap, feds liquidating $5 trillion in assets, $30 trillion national debt, China going to invade Taiwan, 2 million more illegals, rule of law being ignored, Kardashian show might not get renewed, WE NEED A BIGGER BOAT

PS
I think the liberal created doomsday clock is broken. Nice huh?

 

[Russk]

No car all summer? Not something I would do.

I wouldn't do it either. Prices will hold.

 

[static_analysis]

The market is decidedly different.
We now have 9% inflation, a world wide pandemic, WW3 starting, world starvation, 6% interest rates going to 10% asap, feds liquidating $5 trillion in assets, $30 trillion national debt, China going to invade Taiwan, 2 million more illegals, rule of law being ignored, Kardashian show might not get renewed, WE NEED A BIGGER BOAT

PS
I think the liberal created doomsday clock is broken. Nice huh?

no murci

 

[Sakura]

You haven't seen my income tax rate, you would fall off your chair!

Canada should learn from the Japanese. They put a moderate tax, then charge everything else nonsense discreetly like disposal, recycling, recycling maintenance fee, recycling inspection fee, put double tax on gasoline, charge tax for the plastic bags and straws from the supermarkets, and charge a mandatory national broadcast fee for owning a single TV (yep you read that right).

 

[Rcasa20]

No car all summer? Not something I would do.

I’ve gone nearly a year without my own car and it’s been a great learning experience. The main lesson is I’ll never do that again!!!

 

[sicknss]

ICE coming to an end is not something that was unique to the last 18 months. Immediately prior to that point, ICE sports cars were depreciating at the same rate they always did. You can overlay a chart of plenty of assets including stocks, crypto, real estate, commodities, car prices, watch prices and you will all see the same strange and irrational bump from 2021 to now. The only difference is that there is 1 billion times more stock transactions a day than car transactions, so one is a leading indicator and the other is a lagging indicator. If sports cars transacted as frequently as stocks, you would see day-to-day and week to week dramatic movement like you are seeing in stocks as price discovery becomes much more efficient. At any rate, current pricing is a legacy of an extremely hot economy and while it may never revert to what it was pre pandemic, it’s almost impossible to consider that the same level of pricing would be supported in a much slower economy going forward. That would mean that sports car demand is completely independent of the economy and as sports car buyers tend to own more assets than average, I find that hard to believe personally.

The end of ICE (and performance cars in general) has been on the horizon since before covid for sure, but it's been over 24 months now and emissions/policy changes have happened serving to expedite it. The Hellcat motor being discontinued is a great example of how things are accelerating. While I'm having difficulty finding exactly when the policy shift happened I can say that I don't think Chrysler dumped R&D into a motor knowing they'd only use it for 7-8 years. Sure seems like it caught them off guard, no?

The EPA is also cracking down on modifications much harder than they have in the past. It ramped up during covid but is not related.

Yes, covid changed things... and things changed regardless of covid as well.

It's funny how some people think for some bizarre reason the car market went crazy because everyone is rushing to buy ICE and NA engine supercars but had nothing to do with the trillions that was pumped into the economy.

I've cited that as additional reasoning multiple times.

 

[Luzifer]

Canada should learn from the Japanese. They put a moderate tax, then charge everything else nonsense discreetly like disposal, recycling, recycling maintenance fee, recycling inspection fee, put double tax on gasoline, charge tax for the plastic bags and straws from the supermarkets, and charge a mandatory national broadcast fee for owning a single TV (yep you read that right).

I bet we already have these crazy taxes as well. Ok here's a good one, if you buy milk no tax but if you buy chocolate milk they consider it a luxury so it is taxed! 🤪

Here's another weird one, when I was an employee on my paycheck there was a fee for pregnant woman to take a year off after child birth!

We also get to pay school taxes and I don't have any children so this concept is pretty strange to me. One day I called the school board after receiving the yearly bill I told them for the money I pay out year after year I get nothing in return so how about Spanish, German lessons or whatever you teach. They surely thought I was nuts and they refused.

 

[Luzifer]

I’ve gone nearly a year without my own car and it’s been a great learning experience. The main lesson is I’ll never do that again!!!

There was a period where dealers would call around to see if you would sell you car. Last year a Chevy dealer called me they had a "VIP" day where they would appraise my C7 and buy it. I told the woman on the phone you can't afford my price, she seemed perplexed probably thinking why I wouldn't want a few extra dollars than the regular depreciation.

Now that I know I'm a die hard sports car enthusiast no way I could be carless. I would be totally depressed. To most people they wouldn't understand "the super sports car thing".

 

[2Tired]

haha I tried a VF 610 and it was really fast. Not sure STO can handle the power though.

Oh man, a proper TT car is much more fun than the SC cars, and the sounds are incredible! The STO can def handle a conservative 900-1000hp TT setup with motecs and the right tires.

 

[Rampante21]

Taxes..... hm... IM from Sweden, and over here its nuts!

 

[Rcasa20]

There was a period where dealers would call around to see if you would sell you car. Last year a Chevy dealer called me they had a "VIP" day where they would appraise my C7 and buy it. I told the woman on the phone you can't afford my price, she seemed perplexed probably thinking why I wouldn't want a few extra dollars than the regular depreciation.

Now that I know I'm a die hard sports car enthusiast no way I could be carless. I would be totally depressed. To most people they wouldn't understand "the super sports car thing".

I took the approach that with reward comes sacrifice. Being carless was obviously a big one. It actually has been fun getting around by bike but when needing a car it’s definitely been a hassle.

 

[topcarbon]

I think you can be a car enthusiast without having a car.
Passion from cars is not singularly from ownership.
One needs look no further than this forum with those that are enthusiastic for Lamborghini and will never own one.
I love Pagani, but I know my limiktations

 

[zedmtrappe]

I love Pagani, but I know my limitations

I'm with you there ! 😆

 

[3POINT8]

It's funny how some people think for some bizarre reason the car market went crazy because everyone is rushing to buy ICE and NA engine supercars but had nothing to do with the trillions that was pumped into the economy.

I think the supply chain had something to do with it

 

[Mlarco52]

I think the supply chain had something to do with it

Well exotic market was slightly impacted by it but it wasn't hugely changed. Lambo still made and sold the "normal" number of cars they do yearly.

Alot of the real estate gains we've seen were pumped into people buying toys.

 

[surfah]

I think you can be a car enthusiast without having a car.
Passion from cars is not singularly from ownership.
One needs look no further than this forum with those that are enthusiastic for Lamborghini and will never own one.
I love Pagani, but I know my limiktations

Dream crusher

 

[Luzifer]

As of this morning the 3 cheapest cars in the country, first one has damaged history. Keeps going up...

 

[RayVegas]

The bubble isn’t just for the Huracan. Everything is up. From Rolexes to puppies 😅
The Fed created this. Crypto wealth, real estate gains added fuel to the fire. I’m almost 100% certain all will unwind to some extent.

 

[static_analysis]

I think it will take longer to unwind than what people are willing to wait.

 

[RayVegas]

I think it will take longer to unwind than what people are willing to wait.

The full unwind may take a year or two, where used cars are below MSRP. But the start of the unwind is imminent, imo.