[angry banker]

Slow down maybe, recession I'm not sure. I'm not talking about everyone but many people are making more money than ever working from home and that's good news for my biz at least.

I'm still perplexed why anyone worries about a recession if they can afford a Lambo.

Lambos are in fact standard-issue cars for crypto millionaires and get-rich-quick types (unfortunately); these are the individuals who've suffered the most in this pullback. Amazon is trading at pre-pandemic levels, the entire FAANG index is down almost 40% YTD actually. The average Pagani owner might not bat an eyelid but most people now finance Lambos which often means their dry powder isn't unlimited and they're just 'wealthy' as opposed to having FU money.

 

[angry banker]

Canada is bound for a harder correction than the US based on how much of the GDP is in housing and how much a pullback there will impact discretionary spending

 

[angry banker]

I personally am not advocating for a collapse of the market as obviously that would indicate a general economic collapse. What I want is for the market to return to normal and for the people who are hoarding and flipping the cars just for economic reasons to just focus their attention on things other than consumer goods. There are financial instruments for that and the participants are all in it for economic gain as opposed to a hobby market.

 

[angry banker]

No one is asking every buyer/seller to disappear. Without scalpers stockpiling PS5s, the market would still exist like it always has. The market for these cars would be much the same as it was prior to 2020.

 

[angry banker]

One car that's going to see some heavy price action downward is the 720s, it looks like. There are 230 available for sale nationwide, 3x the number of 488s as a benchmark.

 

[angry banker]

Guys, the reason prices don't always reflect inventory level is because a. prices lag sales and b. prices are sticky downwards so take proportionately longer to come down than go up. As cars are traded relatively infrequently, unlike stocks, price discovery is a much messier process. That's why private equity returns look much smoother than public market returns, because they are not as frequently traded / valued. The conclusions we can draw are that prices are not going to do what they did in 2021 for cars when every other asset in 2022 is headed or has headed down.

 

[angry banker]

Price drops on EVO are actually happening a little quicker than I anticipated. A couple cars now in the 270k+ range. Guess dealers are trying to move before the Technica arrives

 

[angry banker]

Someday down the road, we'll all look back with fondness at Mclaren Charlotte asking $270k for a 6-year old LP 580 with over 20k miles.

Autotrader - page unavailable

www.autotrader.com

 

[angry banker]

There was an STO that transacted at PCar market for $449k plus buyer's fee. Not sure how that compares to market but useful data point

 

[angry banker]

I feel bad for whomever bought an lp-580 for over sticker at the peak of the bubble. I assume the only reason they didn't step up to a significantly better EVO RWD is that cost was a consideration, which there's nothing wrong with. However, that also means that they couldn't afford to lose a ton on depreciation and well, with lp 580s trading for below MSRP used since pretty much the start of production, it made zero sense to buy that car over MSRP - and those things are correcting hard.

 

[angry banker]

True, but if cars correct at a similar % off peak pricing, then the less you put in a car, the less you lose.

Logic is definitely sound but I guess if you have less ability to bear a loss in a first place, the % is what really hits you. I think in the end, you'll just end up having paid over MSRP for a car that will surely correct under it whereas the EVO would probably have better residuals considering it's the near-final iteration and better evolved (something like the 991.1 GT3 vs 991.2)

 

[angry banker]

Yes. We have a 40% sales tax in Puerto Rico and the cost certainly passes down to the next buyer when buying used. A $250k evo is $350k after tax and a year old it is say $320k. This absolutely puts a strain on overall exotic sales. It will cripple the market up there and it’s only 10%. Imagine what we go through down here….

Yeah but great weather!

 

[angry banker]

Yup, these guys with 10, 20, 30 million+ buying watches for six figures don’t care too much about buying an overpriced Lambo that they’re going to sell back anyway. This will buoy the prices in the market and keep them higher than people would like them to be. There’s enough of these people out there.

There were plenty of those in the market before things went crazy in 2020 and a lot of new money was pumped in, inflating the buyer pool and pushing prices up. Lambos were the official car of bitcoin bros, after all. If demand hasn't since significantly evaporated for this car, there wouldn't be huge amounts for sale on Autotrader right now. Who knows how low it will go and don't think it'll go as low as 2019 but we're still a long way off from there.

 

[angry banker]

I clearly remember at the peak, there were only 2 RWD EVOs online under 300k. there are now 60! Prices down 15% or so in the last 8 months but still not MSRP. Will need another similar drop to get there

 

[angry banker]

Interesting that they listed it as a private seller on AT and Dealer on BAT

pulling out all the tricks I see. 😂

 

[angry banker]

Anyone notice that Carrio motors have posted several EVO RWDs with intergalatic mileage (like over 50k) over the past couple days? No knock on the dealer, it's actually nice to see people drive these cars instead of doing the quick flip. Prices are rapidly correcting on these cars, the only one it's happening faster to is the 720s which looks like will get to sub 200k this year, especially after 750s is revealed.

 

[angry banker]

I will seriously consider a 720s at 180-190k

I think people are bailing on them as warranties / lease terms expire for well-documented reasons. - there are over 260 for sale right now. But I agree, from a performance / value-for-money perspective, that's a crazy amount of car for sub 200k.

 

[angry banker]

One dealer getting several cars at once with that mileage screams that an exotic rental place unloaded some inventory. And there is still no evidence in this thread that prices are “rapidly correcting,” although they have declined modestly from their peak. But they’re still well above pre-pandemic levels.


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the EVOs have lost 10-15% in 6 months time, on an annual run rate basis, implies a 20%+ decrease from peak within a year's time. That's a pretty rapid unwind but not a collapse which is why I used the term 'correcting'. Not sure they will ever bottom at pre-pandemic levels in my view.

 

[angry banker]

Yes, it’s definitely a big game of musical chairs. No chance a dealer will win this game of chicken.

Lending will become an issue and will certainly lower the prices of exotics also. No one is going to want to come out of pocket for the equity difference the banks are certainly going to requesting.

the end is near.

I just hope people remember which dealers played games with them, tried to stick them with an ADM after a pre-ordered car arrived etc so they can turn the tables. Seems like this is less of an issue with Lambo dealers but Porsche dealers really demonstrated scummy behavior. I heard of instances where people walked into the show room and were just ignored and no one wanted to come up and help them. it's not because the staff didn't see them, it's just because the staff didn't care enough since they had pre sold so much inventory

 

[angry banker]

That one day will be when someone develops an app called ‘Angry Bankers’. Where Angry Bankers throw rocks at unscrupulous dealerships.

haha love it - although most bankers after 2022 bonus season are going to be angry