I just see too many elements of a bubble. Much discussion has been in this thread. Reminds me of meme stock chatter and crypto chatter last year…….I hear crickets now. I also have first hand experience in the dot com bubble crash in 2001……
Huracan pricing bubble
I don’t know about anyone else, but these prices are getting out of control. Evos with 5k+ mileage asking for 350k plus?? Performantes in the high 300 low 400 range? 610s approaching 300? At some point this has to relax a little. I’m just some old guy venting that when he finally has enough to purchase the cars that the asking price keeps getting higher and higher.
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Not sure the time period that constitutes a flip but 11 years later I’d probably just call it a sale! 🤣🤣🤣Now I have to think if I should flip the condo I bought in Vegas in December 2011…. 😂
LolNot sure the time period that constitutes a flip but 11 years later I’d probably just call it a sale! 🤣🤣🤣
After the deal you managed the market still has a little longer before the bubble bursts.I just see too many elements of a bubble. Much discussion has been in this thread. Reminds me of meme stock chatter and crypto chatter last year…….I hear crickets now. I also have first hand experience in the dot com bubble crash in 2001……
Not sure the time period that constitutes a flip but 11 years later I’d probably just call it a sale! 🤣🤣🤣
True…lol.
I actually did try to flip it within months of buying it back then, to be honest hahaha 🤣
Absolutely possible. Thats why I’ve said it’s possible the cars go up another 5%, but I think the next 10, 20 and 30% moves will be down. If there was such a thing as a Lamborghini price index, I would actually short it now lol.After the deal you managed the market still has a little longer before the bubble bursts.
I guess if I was big time enough, and I’m not, I’d try to see if the investment banks would take the other side of that bet for real money! Some swap type thing…
Interesting, now Ray after that slam dunk deal don’t blow it all at those Vegas tables.Absolutely possible. Thats why I’ve said it’s possible the cars go up another 5%, but I think the next 10, 20 and 30% moves will be down. If there was such a thing as a Lamborghini price index, I would actually short it now lol.
I guess if I was big time enough, and I’m not, I’d try to see if the investment banks would take the other side of that bet for real money! Some swap type thing…
I hardly ever play on the tables here, as I cannot win. Only when friends are in town for fun.Interesting, now Ray after that slam dunk deal don’t blow it all at those Vegas tables.
As for sports betting, that’s a completely different story.……My betting volume a week on sports is about an Evo 🤪
I see the Urus market staying high till early next year. Once New deliveries stop in august until spring time, no new cars coming in means far less trade ins. Huracan market is a mystery but seeing as there hasn’t been any slow down in production, and a multi year wait, I don’t see EVOs and specialty cars coming down too much.
I personally think the market will all depend on where the markets go in the coming months and how high the rates go.
The red flag for me is there's over 300 H's and Urus for sale at the moment. That's a lot of inventory so unless inventory rapidly decreases over the next month or two we could see the inventory increase as we head into fall and winter. Not a good sign for values.
The red flag for me is there's over 300 H's and Urus for sale at the moment. That's a lot of inventory so unless inventory rapidly decreases over the next month or two we could see the inventory increase as we head into fall and winter. Not a good sign for values.
Yes, that could put a wrinkle in things, prices are typically based on supply & demand.I personally think the market will all depend on where the markets go in the coming months and how high the rates go.
The red flag for me is there's over 300 H's and Urus for sale at the moment. That's a lot of inventory so unless inventory rapidly decreases over the next month or two we could see the inventory increase as we head into fall and winter. Not a good sign for values.
And Winkelmann mentioned few months ago the reason they he decided against increasing production to meet demand was as he stated this car market wasn't going to last forever and was worried about a oversupply of cars.Yes, that could put a wrinkle in things, prices are typically based on supply & demand.
Expectation is that Fed Funds rate will be 2% higher than it is today at end of year.I personally think the market will all depend on where the markets go in the coming months and how high the rates go.
The red flag for me is there's over 300 H's and Urus for sale at the moment. That's a lot of inventory so unless inventory rapidly decreases over the next month or two we could see the inventory increase as we head into fall and winter. Not a good sign for values.
Gentlemen everything is in a weird environment no one really knows.
we all can guess.
we all can guess.
Up here in Canada we're expected to hit 2.75-3% by end the year. Last time we had 3% was prior to 2008 but household debt levels were half.Expectation is that Fed Funds rate will be 2% higher than it is today at end of year.
Income has also risen since 2008, though. All indications seem to point to some sort of bubble, but I dont think it’s as big as it was then. But then again, we have never had a decade of basically QE. How much of all these asset moves were due to that is to be determined as we now face the opposite, which is QT.Up here in Canada we're expected to hit 2.75-3% by end the year. Last time we had 3% was prior to 2008 but household debt levels were half.
Ive made my bet for now…will see how it plays out.
Qe?
QT?
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Quantitative Easing (QE)
Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy where central banks spur economic activity by buying a range of financial assets in the market.
Quantitative tightening, QT, would be the reverse of QE
Cool concept. I wonder how you could index the prices though. If we consider price relative to MSRP, then for an average particular model the long term trend should probably be downwards as cars collect miles and owners so the other side of your short bet would want to probably incorporate some sort of annual premium for depreciation. And how do you deal with new models coming out? Do you weigh models into the index by market cap, by number on sale, by production numbers?Absolutely possible. Thats why I’ve said it’s possible the cars go up another 5%, but I think the next 10, 20 and 30% moves will be down. If there was such a thing as a Lamborghini price index, I would actually short it now lol.
I guess if I was big time enough, and I’m not, I’d try to see if the investment banks would take the other side of that bet for real money! Some swap type thing…
Fun food for thought lol.
Way too many variables to be a real index. Plus it can be manipulated easily if the data/sample size is too small. I’ll just keep an eye on the STOs on the market since that’s what I sold and it’s a small enough sample to monitor. Most seem to average around 550K asking. I believe that average will go to 500K before 600K…..Cool concept. I wonder how you could index the prices though. If we consider price relative to MSRP, then for an average particular model the long term trend should probably be downwards as cars collect miles and owners so the other side of your short bet would want to probably incorporate some sort of annual premium for depreciation. And how do you deal with new models coming out? Do you weigh models into the index by market cap, by number on sale, by production numbers?
Fun food for thought lol.
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