To me this is all an academic exercise. After 5 years of income I doubt I’ll care much about the dollar value of my EVO that I’ve spent daily driving for the past 5 years. Looking at my forward earnings my net worth will probably have increased a lot regardless of the depreciation.
Huracan pricing bubble
I don’t know about anyone else, but these prices are getting out of control. Evos with 5k+ mileage asking for 350k plus?? Performantes in the high 300 low 400 range? 610s approaching 300? At some point this has to relax a little. I’m just some old guy venting that when he finally has enough to purchase the cars that the asking price keeps getting higher and higher.
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I was bullish last summer because prices had gone up but not to the point where it was beyond silly.Wow…you’re more bearish than me and here I was thinking I was by far one of the most bearish on the market.
I can't be bullish with the current market which (in my opinion) is seeing market euphoria and speculative buying which is signs we're nearing the end of what is a massive bubble. We can all hope for a soft landing when panic sets in but I'm learning towards a pretty steep correction before prices stabilize.
Prices in Canada are stupid on all used cars. Exotics especially. 150k gen 2 vipers. 300k plus 458s
Bubbles do not end in a soft landing, so if this is indeed one, it’ll be brutal. The key level is when these new cars approach sticker on the resale market and if that breaks then look out below. However, maybe the market will be more resilient than you and I think….entirely possible. We will find out then if all this demand is real.I was bullish last summer because prices had gone up but not to the point where it was beyond silly.
I can't be bullish with the current market which (in my opinion) is seeing market euphoria and speculative buying which is signs we're nearing the end of what is a massive bubble. We can all hope for a soft landing when panic sets in but I'm learning towards a pretty steep correction before prices stabilize.
What would be normal for let's say a 3 year run (2020, 2021, 2022) (EVO)? That's 3 per state, or 1 per model year per state. Is the "norm" really less available for sale than that?150+ Evos for sale alone in the US. That’s a lot of cars even though it may not seem like a lot. Not to mention quite a few show reduced price as of late.
Blame Pfaff 😂Prices in Canada are stupid on all used cars. Exotics especially. 150k gen 2 vipers. 300k plus 458s
Hard to say, but I think there’s quite the selection currently. It’s hard to believe how few buyers there really are for these cars. Unless you live in Miami, Beverly Hills, or Orange County, chances are you’re the only person in your neighborhood with a Lambo. Of course there are many exceptions, but you get the point.What would be normal for let's say a 3 year run (2020, 2021, 2022) (EVO)? That's 3 per state, or 1 per model year per state. Is the "norm" really less available for sale than that?
Someone posted this a while back I think. I’ve left it in my phone on a Safari tab. Lamborghini Huracan Price Trends - CarGurus
At first I was looking at the listings for Gallardo's on a daily basis(2019-2020) and they got as low as 105K and most of them in the 130K+ range. Today a lot of them are still in the 130K range which leads me to believe most of them have not gone insane.Good observation! I don’t follow the market on older cars beyond 5 years or so…..
However crazy enough the other half of the listings now sellers are trying very hard to gouge and price them as high as 2015 Huracans! They have been sitting there for months and months.
Probably flippers?150+ Evos for sale alone in the US. That’s a lot of cars even though it may not seem like a lot. Not to mention quite a few show reduced price as of late.
All of them with delivery miles 100%Probably flippers?
All of them with delivery miles 100%
Then that might be the reason there's so many cars available in the US, those who thought to make a buck just for resale.Hard to say, but I think there’s quite the selection currently. It’s hard to believe how few buyers there really are for these cars. Unless you live in Miami, Beverly Hills, or Orange County, chances are you’re the only person in your neighborhood with a Lambo. Of course there are many exceptions, but you get the point.
Here it's the opposite, only 22 cars available in the country. One at 260K then jumps up to 295K,+++. I wouldn't be surprised in those high price range it's probably related to BC tactics.
In my city they are definitely not rare and I'm amazed at how many I see when a lot of you guys live in big US states and don't see them often. My current count is about +-20 of them. I didn't count how many I photographed but I met another guy on the weekend who just got his EVO 2 months ago. Looks like another EVO I photographed 2 weeks ago is now for sale for an insane amount too!
What do you guys think about the STO holding its value during the crash and how much can it drop in value over the years and next 2-3 years from MSRP since it a special edition and limited since allocations were difficult to come by but then again it is still a Huracan?
I think STO and Performante will hold value best given more limited nature and that many folks desire hardcore track focused versions. But the MSRP of a STO is roughly 40% more than that of an EVO RWD...that is not an insignificant difference.What do you guys think about the STO holding its value during the crash and how much can it drop in value over the years and next 2-3 years from MSRP since it a special edition and limited since allocations were difficult to come by but then again it is still a Huracan?
I think EVO RWD will hold well as the goldilocks of the family. Low MSRP, good DNA from the perf and styling. The Tecnica's MSRP and high selling price should make the EVO look like even more of a bargain and relative to the pre-facelift 610/580 it both looks and feels substantially improved.
I don't think most folks will go for a pre-facelift 610/580 unless they are priced considerably lower and the desirability of the EVO RWD in relation should keep it somewhat stable.
Hard to say because the STO isn't a limited production car. Even though allocations for the STO were hard to come by it doesn't necessarily mean they produced limited numbers. It'll still have a 3 year production whereas the Perf had a 2 year production so without knowing exact production numbers it's hard to put a value on future collectability.What do you guys think about the STO holding its value during the crash and how much can it drop in value over the years and next 2-3 years from MSRP since it a special edition and limited since allocations were difficult to come by but then again it is still a Huracan?
Guys- don’t forget that even the SV was down around 25% within 3 years pre-pandemic. Whenever market adjusts, that’s where the market is going in my opinion.
We often forget that bubbles at some point always pop.Bubbles do not end in a soft landing, so if this is indeed one, it’ll be brutal. The key level is when these new cars approach sticker on the resale market and if that breaks then look out below. However, maybe the market will be more resilient than you and I think….entirely possible. We will find out then if all this demand is real.
The one good thing is while this whole situation might be a bubble, the pricing collapse will not be like a traditional bubble bursting. In a normal bubble, the overall price can collapse 70-100%. Obviously this isn’t happening. All you’d see is 70-100% collapse of the premiums they gained from historical depreciation, so basically somewhat back to historical used prices.We often forget that bubbles at some point always pop.
No arguments with the fragile nature of car markets but, all things considered, I am sure many of us can live with, and accept, the probable 25% to 30% depreciation that may be either impending or around the corner. For the rank and file enthusiast the above rate of depreciation was baked into our psyche pre-pandemic, and was accepted as the cost of doing business.
Agree. I feel there is far too much speculation and overthinking about what future values may or may not be. Bake in 30% deprecation over 3 years on new cars and just carry on as we always have done.No arguments with the fragile nature car markets but, all things considered, I am sure many of us can live with, and accept, the probable 25% to 30% depreciation that may be either impending or around the corner. For the rank and file enthusiast the above rate of depreciation was baked into our psyche pre-pandemic, and was accepted as the cost of doing business.
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