Huracan pricing bubble

Im not sure when the party ends, but it will end……

Russk said:

Yes it will end but I don't see it happening anytime soon, especially with exotics and their high demand.

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sicknss said:

I disagree that what is happening to Toyota Camry's is the same as what is happening to high end performance cars but we'll see I suppose.

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Time will tell….. I’ll be on record to say the bubble is bursting and someday this thread will be bumped and I’ll look savvy or look like a moron!

Its not just the car market that will pop imo

surfah said:

"The rain that rains on everybody else can't keep you dry."

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“When they raid the whorehouse, they take the piano player too”

Lambo2018 said:

You're just trying to make us feel good, and spreading cheer everywhere you go.

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Lol…no. My biggest interests in life are women, markets and cars…in that order. So just voicing my opinion…we shall see if I’m right eventually. And if I’m wrong, I have no problem being called out for it.

Lambo2018 said:

No, I think you're spot on. Both the car and housing market are due for a correction whether we like it or not.

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Markets can stay irrational for a long time. But I think of it this way. How much of the current demand is due to the pricing situation? If instead of a 30% paper gain on any new Lamborghini order/purchase, there is a reversion to mean of historical depreciation? If every new car saw a 15-20% decline when taken off the lot, how many people would be really wanting these cars?

We’ve had QE, low rates, increased money supply, increased wealth due to crypto gains into a lower supply situation(Covid caused) and prices on everything went bonkers. What do you think happens when we have the total reverse situation of QT, increasing rates, lower money supply, decreasing cryto wealth into a normalized supply situation eventually?

The bubble isn’t just for the Huracan. Everything is up. From Rolexes to puppies 😅
The Fed created this. Crypto wealth, real estate gains added fuel to the fire. I’m almost 100% certain all will unwind to some extent.

static_analysis said:

I think it will take longer to unwind than what people are willing to wait.

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The full unwind may take a year or two, where used cars are below MSRP. But the start of the unwind is imminent, imo.

Lambo2018 said:

So Ray, when the stuff hits the fan, are we talking outcomes more akin to Graph "A" or "B"?

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I don’t know which it’ll be.
But the end result is used cars being under MSRP. For sure regular production cars like Evos and Urus will be.

static_analysis said:

Doubt there will ever be a $150k good example EVO at this point?

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Not anytime soon, but Huracans will get there and Urus under $200K.

Hogdogfatkat said:

355 huracans listed on Autotrader as of today (USA Nationwide). Cheapest one is $199k with almost 100k miles on it.

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Lambo2018 said:

Heck, less than two years ago I bought a preowned 2019 580-2 with 1600 miles for $197K plus free shipping. That, in fact, was my first Lamborghini.

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What a divergence!

Huracaan said:

I know for a fact dealers paid over a million dollars for the SVJ63's sitting on the market and I believe the Xago as well.

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That’s insane.

Huracaan said:

People who think their mass produced supercars will keep appreciating in value whilst the markets are on the verge of plunging off a cliff deserve to lose money.

And the H and A are not rare cars, there's plenty of them around so if you really want a ICE NA V10 or V12 you'll be able to find one. Relax, wait and don't fall into this BS FOMO narrative.

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Pretty much everyone who believes in the ICE NA holding value or appreciating has probably bought. Unless there are more market gains in crypto or real estate, I don’t think there is more demand to push prices higher. The next 10% price move in these cars could be up, but likely down. And the next 20-30% move is certainly down.

Another factor that has raised demand for these cars is that they’re going over MSRP and people that can afford multiple cars order more than they normally would. How much would demand fall off if say they depreciate 5-10% a year as in past? I believe this is the biggest factor that is contributing to the 2-3 year waits for new orders.

Lambo2018 said:

Excellent discussion so far. Let's just not lose sight of the fact many of us are looking for the best sports car experience first and foremost, and as previously stated, you have to pay to play.
I don't think any reasonable person will assert this market exuberance is long term, though, nothing wrong with enjoying it while it lasts.
Just think of the stories we will be able to tell, something like, I remember the day............

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This is the correct way to look at things. If the cost to play in one’s mind is acceptable today, then one should go ahead.

SL55 said:

I've lost money on all my Lambos except for the STO. It feels good to finally make some money but the money I made barely covered my loses lol.

This car market isn't reality, the actual reality is you lose a ton of money on these cars especially when you're buying new so if you're buying new and not taking delivery until next year prepare yourself to take a hit.

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Well, you mention losing money buying new…I assume at MSRP. What do you think will happen to those buying used at above MSRP??

3POINT8 said:

How big of hit am I going to take on a 2022-2023 EVO RWD MSRP $265k?

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No one can predict for sure. Pre Covid, I think the depreciation was about 25-35% after 3 years.

Lambo2018 said:

How much over MSRP are EVOs actually being sold for currently? Is it around $30K +/-?

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Always have to state whether it’s retail or wholesale. I’d guess brand new Evos wholesale $30-35K over probably and retail $30-35K on top of that? I think the Urus market is similar in terms of % over sticker. That’s why I think people saying the rise is due to the last NA V10, etc may not be accurate. Just some weird supply/demand thing and bubble.
I will say one thing about bubbles. No one knows when it’ll end but one will be able to look back and realize it was a bubble. Just look at the decimated high growth stocks in the stock market today…..no one knew when they would pop but when they did, we see it was obviously just a bubble.

I understand the NA theory, but the thing is everything has gone up. From Porsches, to Ferraris to the Urus, which has no “last of breed” theory to justify its rise. The other thing is that anyone who buys into the theory has already bought, so I only see one direction it can go unless more buyers subscribe to that theory going forward to continue its rise.