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Huracan pricing bubble

127319 Views 2890 Replies 105 Participants Last post by  Huracaan
I don’t know about anyone else, but these prices are getting out of control. Evos with 5k+ mileage asking for 350k plus?? Performantes in the high 300 low 400 range? 610s approaching 300? At some point this has to relax a little. I’m just some old guy venting that when he finally has enough to purchase the cars that the asking price keeps getting higher and higher.
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While supply vs demand is affecting both markets there's a giant difference in that ICE cars are being killed off particularly at the top end. Mid to long term you can only compare high performance cars and houses if western countries try to mandate that we no longer build houses and everyone must live in an apartment. Houses (high performance ICE cars in this analogy) would be unlikely to come back down in value.
ICE coming to an end is not something that was unique to the last 18 months. Immediately prior to that point, ICE sports cars were depreciating at the same rate they always did. You can overlay a chart of plenty of assets including stocks, crypto, real estate, commodities, car prices, watch prices and you will all see the same strange and irrational bump from 2021 to now. The only difference is that there is 1 billion times more stock transactions a day than car transactions, so one is a leading indicator and the other is a lagging indicator. If sports cars transacted as frequently as stocks, you would see day-to-day and week to week dramatic movement like you are seeing in stocks as price discovery becomes much more efficient. At any rate, current pricing is a legacy of an extremely hot economy and while it may never revert to what it was pre pandemic, it’s almost impossible to consider that the same level of pricing would be supported in a much slower economy going forward. That would mean that sports car demand is completely independent of the economy and as sports car buyers tend to own more assets than average, I find that hard to believe personally.
 

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I really don’t see prices coming down any time soon
With supply chains continue to be broken(not just disrupted), with people who own these cars presently capitalizing on profits, with people who purchased high and want to protect their positions, with little market supply, and with people buying these cars at the high market price, with ICE slowly coming to an end, the market for these cars will continue to hold high market value and those praying and sitting on the sidelines will continue to pray and hope and tell their friends that they are going to buy…….just not now. But they will continue to wait on the market. At the end some will finally purchase, but most will not
There is no real lack of supply relative to historical levels as it pertains to Lamborghinis. They produced more Huracans than ever and posted record production levels as a whole over the last year. That doesn't hold true for lower margin cars, like Camrys, but VAG made sure that the available chips were allocated towards higher margin cars. The lack of supply for these kinds of cars is relative to the demand that was recently created; demand for luxury goods always goes up during periods of economic euphoria. That's why handbags, watches, high-end whiskeys etc all went up in unison. Lets remember that Huracan's never depreciated like AMGs in the first place, so not like anyone is forecasting an EVO at $150k in a couple years.
 

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If an ADM means nothing to you financially, then why wait? Actually the question is more why have you waited till now, but I digress. I just would advocate strong caution buying a car above ADM if you're in a position where swallowing $50-100k of depreciation (from an above MSRP price to slightly below) within a couple years would be a hit to you financially.
 

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Salesmen and realtors:

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And Pfaff is the Canadian version of Mclaren Charlotte. They've pissed off some authorized dealers by flipping limited edition cars, cars which the AD's weren't allowed to flip. Not that I feel sorry for the AD's but these dealers do have a gentleman's agreement which Pfaff doesn't care about since they got new owners. And from what I heard some of the AD's are now refusing to sell limited edition cars to customers who want to use Pfaff for financing and leasing.
Mclaren Charlotte are God-tier. Currently trying to flog a 6 year old LP 580 for 50k over MSRP.
 

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In my speculative opinion, we won't see a burst.
I think that ultimately the car market is very much a derivative of the financial markets and so I tend to believe that the closest we will see to a burst would be fueled by a larger drop in finance. Which would cause enthusiast cars to sort of just stop being taken off from dealer lots(as they are now in some places) and then all of sudden dealers will once again be much more prone to negotiation on listed prices. However, I don't think that initially listing prices will drop, it will be months before dealers and private sellers for that matter start accepting the reality.

But that's just my view, I could be way of the mark here
I agree, short of an economic disaster, it will be a slow downtrend and prices will be slower to drop than was the case when they moved up.
 

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Most, if not all, of the pandemic gains have been given up by the high flying stocks. Not sure about recession, but certainly the party is just about over.
Recession seems pretty likely but is not something to fear in and of itself. If we have a slight technical recession, no harm, no foul. The real trouble would be a recession in the midst of high inflation and without rates high enough to assuage the recession by cutting a little.
 

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I’m convinced there is group of people that are collapsing our country on purpose.
Everything this administration is touching turns to siht.
How is it under Our previous president all was well...the country seemed to be doing well.
Today i heard that the WHO will BE IN CONTROL of our pandemic issues.
I wish i can find a better country to move to i’m FED up with all this nonsense.
I dislike getting into politics but anyway; this inflation and selloff is a global phenomenon, not limited to the US. and it frankly has nothing to do with the current administration or any administration but rather a concerted effort to keep interest rates lower than it should be by the central bank....which is independent of the government. The same central bankers were in power in the previous administration and frankly, the M2 money supply grew the most at that point. Helicopter money was championed by both administrations and Trump wanted more stimulus to go out and Biden continued the trend.


Long story short - central banks didn't have the balls to slow an economy and were YET AGAIN behind the curve and were caught with their pants down because disinflation rather than inflation was happening for a solid 10 years before this mess and it led them to believe that the economy was structurally changed such that monetary stimulus no longer caused inflation. As for the election, I had no skin in the game at the time but observed the betting odds swing heavily in favour of Trump on election night - a few quick calculations showed that to be an easy bet to take the other side of and I got paid out at over 4:1. Funnily, after that arbitrage, Bloomberg ran a story on the phenomenon. I wish all opportunities were that transparent, I could actually afford an ADM lol

 

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Well, $25K losses is better than $175K.

Just think if Biden goes face down we inherit the ever disturbing cackling Kamala.
She is pretty disturbing…funnily (not that this is what makes her ineffectual) she’s half Tamil Indian, like me but it’s heartening to see how she only acknowledges the other side because that’s much more hip lmao
 

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Buy gold if you want a hard asset. Why buy a car that has maintenance and insurance costs? Buy real estate that you can rent out for cash flow. Holding a car has negative cash flow annually…..
Yeah I don’t think an asset that has depreciated in pretty much all of recorded history until very recently is a great place to park your money when the stock market is falling off a cliff.
 

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Add another 2 brand new cars on consignment being "milked" One Evo and one STO. Sad to see it deprives true enthusiasts getting a car.
There are now over 90 used 992 GT3s for sale. all this for one model year of production that isn’t even completed and for a car everyone and their mom was saying was extremely limited in production. There are more for sale than LP 580s at the moment FFS.
 

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Can I interest anyone in a 12k mile 458 Italia for $290k?

I am on record dumping my STO 2 weeks ago. I believe what I got as wholesale will be retail pricing by the fall. Right now, the lowest are at 499K and median is about 550K. We will see 50K drop from here by the fall. Probably 75K drop and small chance of 100K drop sometime next year.
We should do an over/under friendly betting pool for median prices for EVOs and STOs 6, 12, and 18 months forward
 
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