Huracan pricing bubble

161437 Views 3490 Replies 114 Participants Last post by topcarbon, 19 h ago

Dpk555

Discussion Starter · Apr 21, 2022

I don’t know about anyone else, but these prices are getting out of control. Evos with 5k+ mileage asking for 350k plus?? Performantes in the high 300 low 400 range? 610s approaching 300? At some point this has to relax a little. I’m just some old guy venting that when he finally has enough to purchase the cars that the asking price keeps getting higher and higher.

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sicknss

· #43 · May 2, 2022

I personally see very little reason that they'll come down at any point in the foreseeable future. Barring some significant economic event that would cause much bigger issues I think waiting for them to come down is exceedingly hopeful.

Keep in mind that the entire performance car market is coming to an end. As we get closer to autonomous cars being standard less R&D will be put into fun manually driven cars to the point their production will stop naturally. Now add ridiculous emissions regulations that seem set on killing them earlier anyway and it's easy to see that the days are numbered. That's still ignoring inflation and how much money was printed out of thin air...

In a lot of ways the car market is like the housing market currently. Tons of demand and no supply. But imagine we had morons saying we have to stop building houses and land is too precious to dedicate to one family, everyone will need to be in a condo or apartment going forward. You think the houses would ever come down in value again?

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sicknss

· #49 · May 9, 2022

RayVegas said:
Used Car Prices Are Crashing At A Near Record Pace | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Im not sure when the party ends, but it will end……

I disagree that what is happening to Toyota Camry's is the same as what is happening to high end performance cars but we'll see I suppose.

sicknss

· #55 · May 10, 2022

Russk said:
This is the end of an era of the ICE. I can see demand only getting stronger as we get closer to the ultimate end. A lot can happen between now and then so I guess we will just have to wait and see. I'm just hoping it lasts long enough so I can get the best price for my EVO if and when I sell it.

Yup, the emissions restrctions and move to all electric will have little affect on the average Toyota Camry purchaser.

sicknss

· #76 · May 10, 2022

Lambo2018 said:
No, I think you're spot on. Both the car and housing market are due for a correction whether we like it or not.

While supply vs demand is affecting both markets there's a giant difference in that ICE cars are being killed off particularly at the top end. Mid to long term you can only compare high performance cars and houses if western countries try to mandate that we no longer build houses and everyone must live in an apartment. Houses (high performance ICE cars in this analogy) would be unlikely to come back down in value.

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sicknss

· #106 · May 11, 2022

angry banker said:
ICE coming to an end is not something that was unique to the last 18 months. Immediately prior to that point, ICE sports cars were depreciating at the same rate they always did. You can overlay a chart of plenty of assets including stocks, crypto, real estate, commodities, car prices, watch prices and you will all see the same strange and irrational bump from 2021 to now. The only difference is that there is 1 billion times more stock transactions a day than car transactions, so one is a leading indicator and the other is a lagging indicator. If sports cars transacted as frequently as stocks, you would see day-to-day and week to week dramatic movement like you are seeing in stocks as price discovery becomes much more efficient. At any rate, current pricing is a legacy of an extremely hot economy and while it may never revert to what it was pre pandemic, it’s almost impossible to consider that the same level of pricing would be supported in a much slower economy going forward. That would mean that sports car demand is completely independent of the economy and as sports car buyers tend to own more assets than average, I find that hard to believe personally.

The end of ICE (and performance cars in general) has been on the horizon since before covid for sure, but it's been over 24 months now and emissions/policy changes have happened serving to expedite it. The Hellcat motor being discontinued is a great example of how things are accelerating. While I'm having difficulty finding exactly when the policy shift happened I can say that I don't think Chrysler dumped R&D into a motor knowing they'd only use it for 7-8 years. Sure seems like it caught them off guard, no?

The EPA is also cracking down on modifications much harder than they have in the past. It ramped up during covid but is not related.

Yes, covid changed things... and things changed regardless of covid as well.

Huracaan said:
It's funny how some people think for some bizarre reason the car market went crazy because everyone is rushing to buy ICE and NA engine supercars but had nothing to do with the trillions that was pumped into the economy.

I've cited that as additional reasoning multiple times.

sicknss

· #199 · May 16, 2022

Rcasa20 said:
Are there really a lot of flippers on this forum? My impression is 95-100% are die hard fans of Lambo.

Maybe not here but in general yes. My car was listed everywhere and the overwhelming majority of offers were either open flippers or people only offering what a flipper would. One broker even told me they had been asked by numerous customers about my car. I guess people didn't want to deal with private sales?

Dpk555 said:
The stock market is a leading indicator of where most asset prices are going. Don’t delude yourself into thinking your huracan is going to keep appreciating with the exception of very highly desirable specs and low mileage examples. Lambo produced over 20k huracans…

There were 15k Toyota Supras produced in the states alone. They ended production because they couldn't sell them. IMHO this platform offers many similar characteristics - Fast, reliable, and cheap to maintain even with significant modification.

Huracaan said:
People who think their mass produced supercars will keep appreciating in value whilst the markets are on the verge of plunging off a cliff deserve to lose money.

And the H and A are not rare cars, there's plenty of them around so if you really want a ICE NA V10 or V12 you'll be able to find one. Relax, wait and don't fall into this BS FOMO narrative.

A recession or worse is one thing but I don't think a lot of people will be excited about buying opportunities if/when that happens. After that's over (if it happens) I've yet to be convinced that many ICE performance cars won't appreciate again. This isn't the same world it was 5 years ago and that's not all due to covid.

This of course is provided future regulations don't make ownership prohibitive.

sicknss

· #211 · May 16, 2022

Lambo2018 said:
Excellent discussion so far. Let's just not lose sight of the fact many of us are looking for the best sports car experience first and foremost

Exactly why I think this specific platform is so attractive and may remain so.

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sicknss

· #1,046 · 11 mo ago (Edited)

If I had a dollar for every time someone mentioned supply while ignoring demand I'd have a Lamborghini.

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sicknss

· #1,049 · 11 mo ago

Huracaan said:
You mean demand for new Lambo's so they be flipped? Not much demand for used Lambo's because the amount of used cars is increasing everyday.

Unless you have a source you didn't supply that looks like an opinion disguised as fact. Supply and value both appear to be the highest they've been since the bottom in mid 2020:

Lamborghini Huracan Price Trends - CarGurus

Track Lamborghini Huracan price trends. Find out which cars are going up or down in price. Compare to index and historical prices.

www.cargurus.com

sicknss

· #1,050 · 11 mo ago

Jr Mint said:
Which interior on your ViolaP perf?

Lots of purple and green thanks to Ad Personam. The original owner referred to it as the Joker spec.

Purple Vehicle Motor vehicle Steering wheel Automotive design

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sicknss

· #1,053 · 11 mo ago

2Tired said:
If supply is extremely high, and continuing to increase, then consumer demand is low, correct?

Do you have any source to refute the one I supplied showing that values are at their highest now? It's been weeks since I stopped participating in this thread because it was going nowhere and literally nothing has changed... except that the actual values are a bit higher now.

I've been tracking listings and values personally since COVID started, listings were at their lowest around the same time prices hit the bottom. Fast forward to now and both supply and value are at their highest since the bottom. I'm open to any data you can supply but those are the facts.

sicknss

· #1,055 · 11 mo ago

2Tired said:
I didn't bring up values, but you did not answer my question.

It would only matter if (generally speaking) they are not selling... and values are mostly unchanged while the number of listings have increased.

sicknss

· #1,057 · 11 mo ago

2Tired said:
Does supply not pile up due to inventory stagnating?

Not if the cars are selling, no. If demand has increased it can overcome the supply. Number of listings does not necessarily equate to stagnation of inventory.

2Tired said:
Inventory typically does not pile up during summer months. Currently 397 Huracans for sale on AT.

Prices typically don't rise as supply increases, yet here we are. My search, which I used multiple times per week since early 2020, shows 3x the results as the bottom in 2020 and prices are significantly higher.

2Tired said:
What do the average price decreases over the lest 30-90 days, from your link, suggest? What do those changes reflect when compared to the CarGuru Index (also from your link), that show very slight increases on average vehicle prices over the last 30-90 days?

Negligible change over the last 6 months? Significant increase since supply was 1/3rd? According to the most vocal posters less change in price than inventory?

2Tired said:
If you purchased the HP that I'm guessing you did, I can understand why the thought of prices coming back down could be painful.

If you're looking to purchase one, I can understand why the thought of prices coming back down could be joyful. All I said was ignoring all but one data point isn't providing much value.

sicknss

· #1,059 · 11 mo ago

3POINT8 said:
looks like values are strong and will stay that way for awhile

I have my theories but as I've said before no one knows. Basic supply/demand logic hasn't helped much over the last couple years and too many people seem to focus solely on one part of that equation to predict the future.

I started waiting on a fire sale 2.5 years ago. I also know far more people waiting for a Huracan "crash" than people selling Huracans. Anecdotal for sure but barring any raw data it sure doesn't feel like there's a problem with demand.

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sicknss

· #1,064 · 11 mo ago

RayVegas said:
Easiest to track is the STO. Most cars have few miles and are all either 2021/ 2022. When I sold mine 6 weeks ago, there were none listed under $500K. Today there are a few, but it’s a small sample size. Looks like it’s headed down since I sold, but until I see a couple listed at $450K, I can’t say for sure the bubble has popped for it

That seems perfectly normal during any year. If you're going to flip a car you'll get the best return early on.

Huracaan said:
Lol, what cars are selling? The number of cars on AT are increasing everyday.

And of course prices aren't coming down because dealers will ride the downturn as long as they can. The issue is this isn't a downturn, this is what we call coming back down to reality.

Are you actually tracking the individual cars? Again, number of listings does not mean the same cars are sitting for extended periods. If we're talking anecdotes I'll reference my old car which lasted less than 2 weeks after listing. Like a week ago Autotrader had 2 cars under 200k, those listings are gone now.

sicknss

· #1,066 · 11 mo ago

2Tired said:
Correct, but we can see how long cars at certain price points are sitting on the market, and also which cars are having their prices reduced.

Unless you're looking at specific cars that means nothing... though the 2 AWD cars under 200k on Autotrader don't exist any longer if that helps. In fact it's been quite a while since the cheapest car on my search was ~217k as is current.

2Tired said:
Unless you have a source of information to share, that shows us the number of cars selling, these are the data points we have to pull from. So, I don't see what your point is, other than to attempt to refute the facts that we do have, with information that we don't have access to, to further your agenda.

I supplied a source that tracks values, the specific topic of this thread. Those that seem upset by it haven't provided any data at all.
Stop projecting.

2Tired said:
Based on your link, on average for huracans, prices aren't increasing.

Then post a source to the data point that you're alluding to being different from what we can reasonably gather.

My source, whether you like it or not, definitively shows that number of listings ALONE has little to no bearing on value.
Ignore it if you want but all I said was that hyper focusing on number of listings alone is unlikely to help predict the future.

sicknss

· #1,069 · 11 mo ago

Huracaan said:
I'm not talking about the same cars selling or sitting, I'm talking new listings increasing. If there's so much demand than listings should be decreasing.

And 2 years ago was the least number of listings I've seen in almost 2.5 years. It was also the lowest point in prices.

sicknss

· #1,071 · 11 mo ago

RayVegas said:
Clearly 75 basis points in July. 50/75 in September……

Automobile loan rates aren't tied to the fed rate like mortgages. I can still get the same auto loan rates I saw 4-5 months ago, could that actually increase their attractiveness?

sicknss

· #1,076 · 11 mo ago

2Tired said:
I posted that same source days ago, you didn't introduce anything new to the discussion.

You'll have to forgive me for missing that specific post, but it's only more confusing that the majority of the discussion seems to focus solely on listings which has shown to be horrendously reliable for gauging value alone.

2Tired said:
Your entire point is nonsense, as no one here has claimed that demand doesn't affect values.... All we have said is that based on the information available to us, and what we can track via listings, it looks like supply is high and demand is low. So, unless you have a source to refute that, you're merely making noise for that sake of it.

Continually posting that listings have increased with no mention of other factors is nonsense, particularly after you yourself posted what is probably the best source of values. Obviously there are more factors and they're all but ignored from what I've seen.

My source (and your source apparently) definitively shows that the number of listings alone is a horrible indicator of value but this thread is full of noise about the number of listings increasing every 7 minutes while the values are basically unchanged for 6 months now.

I'm not sure why you're taking it so personally that I posted something you agree with using a source you also used but if you're expecting me to not contribute something that is demonstrably more valuable than continually posting about the number of listings then you'll be waiting longer than it takes for the market to crash.

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sicknss

· #1,078 · 11 mo ago

2Tired said:
The entire thread is about speculating, and that will never change, which is why I was merely challenging your attempts at shutting down the discussion.

It's almost like my comments spurred additional discussion including factors that were mostly ignored, but go on.

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