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Huracan pricing bubble

161583 Views 3490 Replies 114 Participants Last post by  topcarbon
I don’t know about anyone else, but these prices are getting out of control. Evos with 5k+ mileage asking for 350k plus?? Performantes in the high 300 low 400 range? 610s approaching 300? At some point this has to relax a little. I’m just some old guy venting that when he finally has enough to purchase the cars that the asking price keeps getting higher and higher.
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The markets are getting wrecked, rates are going up and we're probably heading towards a recession. Not a chance in hell these cars don't start dropping in price and RIP to all the people who paid insane ADM's.
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In my area that's a negative, too many immigrants coming here throwing money to get a roof because it's cheaper than the other side and it's a bidding frenzy. Take a look here at these 2 cranes it's now going skyward.
Lol @ immigrants are going to prop up the most overvalued RE market in the world. How many immigrants are coming to Canada who have access to a million dollars to buy a property? Most if not all are low wage workers who can barely afford to pay the rent. It's just a BS narrative the RE industry wants people to believe.

Plain and simple Canadian's borrowed cheap money since the panadmic started, poured it into RE and now the bubble is about to the burst.

And here's a snippet from an article from BMO talking about this vary thing...

Just a blip, right? A bazillion immigrants are coming, creating a price floor that will stop prices from dropping. Let’s look past the fact a fifth of recent immigrants want to leave due to the cost of living. We’ll also gloss over the fact that studies show Canada is looking less competitive by the day. Heck, let’s even gloss over the poor value proposition for immigrants today. Let’s only focus on BMO’s latest chart showing no correlation between population and home prices.

“Housing bulls are convinced that rising immigration tallies and strong population growth will keep a firm floor on the market,” he said. Adding, “Perhaps. But the attached chart shows zero correlation between population growth and home prices.”

Rectangle Slope Plot Font Line
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When I was saying immigrants I wasn't referring from overseas but from the other side of the city. They pay a whole lot more over there so they are flooding this part. But one high rise where I saw all the owners name of these condos I would say over 95% sounded very foreign.

There is one thing you may not know, overseas immigrants receive money, the government keeps the numbers secret but I suspect it may be a lot, I can tell you a lot of them have new houses, new cars, new furniture and when it comes time to pay my bill they argue the entire bill is free or tax free or whatever.
There's article after article that prices are falling in the GTA and beyond so you must live in the only part of Canada where demand is insane.
ICE coming to an end is not something that was unique to the last 18 months. Immediately prior to that point, ICE sports cars were depreciating at the same rate they always did. You can overlay a chart of plenty of assets including stocks, crypto, real estate, commodities, car prices, watch prices and you will all see the same strange and irrational bump from 2021 to now. The only difference is that there is 1 billion times more stock transactions a day than car transactions, so one is a leading indicator and the other is a lagging indicator. If sports cars transacted as frequently as stocks, you would see day-to-day and week to week dramatic movement like you are seeing in stocks as price discovery becomes much more efficient. At any rate, current pricing is a legacy of an extremely hot economy and while it may never revert to what it was pre pandemic, it’s almost impossible to consider that the same level of pricing would be supported in a much slower economy going forward. That would mean that sports car demand is completely independent of the economy and as sports car buyers tend to own more assets than average, I find that hard to believe personally.
It's funny how some people think for some bizarre reason the car market went crazy because everyone is rushing to buy ICE and NA engine supercars but had nothing to do with the trillions that was pumped into the economy.
Not only are H's piling up but SVJ's aren't moving either and it's basically the summer driving season. Not a good sign for flippers and dealers.

Supercar inventory will probably increase with each rate hike so it'll probably a good time to flip your car if you want to make some money before the market cools.
Oldest trick by dealers is selling cars between each other and keeping prices high. So many SVJ's sitting on the market have been flipped between various dealers, same with the STO's.
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Is sales tax not incurred on a dealer to dealer sale?

Btw Pfaff haz a 130k 93 RX7
Nope, even US dealers buying cars in Canada are exempt.
I believe he's talking about flippers and dealers so if you're not buying to flip why would you need to sell? It's a good thing we're heading towards a normal and balanced market because this sh!tshow has gone on for way too long.

And let me pull out my tiny violin for all the dealers who overpaid or have a ton of inventory they might not be able to move when the market starts cooling.
I believe we hit the peak in the car market last month and the true impact from raising rates and slowing stock/crypto markets won't be felt until the summer.

Good luck to dealers who are hoarding million dollar+ A's and $500k+ STO's.
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Hopefully, those dealers didn't pay a million for those A's.
I know for a fact dealers paid over a million dollars for the SVJ63's sitting on the market and I believe the Xago as well.
The stock market is a leading indicator of where most asset prices are going. Don’t delude yourself into thinking your huracan is going to keep appreciating with the exception of very highly desirable specs and low mileage examples. Lambo produced over 20k huracans…
People who think their mass produced supercars will keep appreciating in value whilst the markets are on the verge of plunging off a cliff deserve to lose money.

And the H and A are not rare cars, there's plenty of them around so if you really want a ICE NA V10 or V12 you'll be able to find one. Relax, wait and don't fall into this BS FOMO narrative.
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Buying at list = good idea. Buying way over list or paying crazy ADM = bad idea.

The car market especially the supercar market isn't immune as the markets start cooling so my suggesting is buy a supercar with the mindset buyers had pre-COVID. If buying new, keep your spec reasonable so you don't take a massive hit when it comes time to sell.
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How many $200k+ buyers are there in a recession even if it's a mild recession? Not many. You need a consistent stream of buyers to keep these type of prices afloat and I personally don't see that happening in the coming months.

I'm still sticking with my prediction which is H's will go back to where they were prior to COVID which is at list or just below. A's will have a similar faith but a bigger drop because of the AV replacement.

It'll be interesting to revisit my post a year from now. Hello future me.
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YOLO and FOMO are two reasons why people get themselves in a financial hole.
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A year ago we still had PPP money and rock bottom rates also the stock and crypto markets were booming. Things have changed.

And too many people are buying into this narrative that there's going to be a massive bum rush to buy V10's and V12's in a couple years. If we're heading towards a recession how many people out there are going to be dropping $200k+ on a supercar? And lets not forget that there's over 200 H's for sale at the moment in a hot market, how many cars will get listed in a slow market?

Bottomline is there no shortages of V10's or V12's for the foreseeable future.
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Lets not forget the R8 also has the same V10 so if someone really wanted a NA V10 say 10 years from now they can buy a R8 for less.
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Well, you have a $50k headstart, so I think you’ll be fine for a while….
I don't know about that. There's currently 350+ H's for sale and this number doesn't include dealer stock that isn't listed online. It's a red flag for me because we're heading towards the summer driving season but yet there's so many cars listed for sale.

Unless the inventory starts to dwindle in the coming months the chances are by Fall/Winter we could see H's returning back to list or dipping below as inventory increases.
I don’t think it will crash to MSRP by the time he takes delivery….that’s what I meant by “for a while”. Was not referring to a timeframe measured in years.
Really depends on where the economy is at and how many EVO's are listed for sale.
Wow…you’re more bearish than me and here I was thinking I was by far one of the most bearish on the market.
I was bullish last summer because prices had gone up but not to the point where it was beyond silly.

I can't be bullish with the current market which (in my opinion) is seeing market euphoria and speculative buying which is signs we're nearing the end of what is a massive bubble. We can all hope for a soft landing when panic sets in but I'm learning towards a pretty steep correction before prices stabilize.
Prices in Canada are stupid on all used cars. Exotics especially. 150k gen 2 vipers. 300k plus 458s
Blame Pfaff 😂
What do you guys think about the STO holding its value during the crash and how much can it drop in value over the years and next 2-3 years from MSRP since it a special edition and limited since allocations were difficult to come by but then again it is still a Huracan?
Hard to say because the STO isn't a limited production car. Even though allocations for the STO were hard to come by it doesn't necessarily mean they produced limited numbers. It'll still have a 3 year production whereas the Perf had a 2 year production so without knowing exact production numbers it's hard to put a value on future collectability.
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