Currency Expansion & Real Estate Bubble

Headline is really misleading. If you’re curious about vehicle prices, there are threads tracking the used car market.

currency expansion and a real estate bubble are leading indicators of what could, theoretically, affect the used car market.

Rising rates are just headline grabbers to deter the common man about what’s really happening behind the scenes. Rates are a temporary adjustment and can be refinanced later, should they drop again… and they will because it creates sooooooo much money in the economy with refi booms. Dive deeper and review Fannie and Freddie’s retained earnings since the administration before the last administration. Know that this time around, more people are heavily invested in their homes (larger down payments or cash purchases) and instead of walking from a house because they have Zero down, they walk from a house by taking a 30% hit to their cash for fear it’ll drop more than 30%. The effect is similar to an foreclosure hitting the market for 30% below market. Creates a snowball affect. Then your FHA, VA, USDA who all put 3.5% or 0% down will walk because they’re upside down.

the job losses are beginning to increase now that earnings for Q3 are over. Just wait for Q4 reporting in Q1. Even worse for Q2 reporting on Q1.

does it change car prices? Maybe, maybe not. But it does play into your headline of a housing bubble. Part of what I do is in the data business for new home developments. If you could see the national trend of cancellation rates, reduced traffic to models, increased inventory on builder balance sheets, and conversion rates, you’d be scared. If you’re in Phoenix, Boise, Vegas, Northern California, Austin, or the Carolinas, you’d be even more scared.

To me, it’s opportunity knocking. I’m grateful to have this chance to pounce. Might even vote for Biden just so it can crumble further and give me even more opportunities lol.

the housing market, stock market and car market (auto loans to be specific) are all tied together. The everything bubble started to inflate after 2008. I know developers, Real estate investors and even have spoken to a few on this forum... On top of that I have a background in drafting and design - so I understand the whole construction process from start to finish.
since posting it I did find those other threads that watch the prices of the lambo's. Sure some of the cars are still going up but they are not a reflection of the market....yet. As most wealthy people do not think we're in a down market.

I am for sure thinking the luxury car market is going to follow the regular and collector car...
Already seeing the collector car market drop by 20-50% in many places.

I doubt rates are going to drop; as they said at the beginning of this year they were planning 8-9 rate hikes and potentially there could be equally as many as next year. Add in the supply chain breakdown, the escalation in the east and west and the whole global economy slowing down.

Are you ready if we have a repeat of 1978 inflation with 18-20% interest rates?
Are you ready if the currency get devalued to points similar to Weimar republic?
Are you ready for the end of cash and roll out of central bank digital currencies?

The foreclosures of 2008 will be nothing compared to what could potentially happen, add the auto repo due to people being under water on their auto loans. Only time will tell but when this market goes... hold on because it looks to be one hell of a ride down.

Gh0st0 said:

Out of curiosity out of the areas you mentioned what is your recommendation. We've been actually eyeing the Carolinas just due to the lower cost of living, and well housing is lower priced then the Denver area but Denver doesnt seem to be as impacted as of yet.

Click to expand...

If it’s your primary residence, choose a home to live in where you’ll be most happy and if you have a family, where they’ll be most happy, along with great schools for the kids. The fluctuation of price shouldn’t matter if you plan on being there 10-15+ years. Even if you live their shorter and you lose some monetary equity, you gained equity in life by living somewhere you were all happy - and that’s worth more than the monetary.

Wherever you go, make sure you like the politics of the state and county. Make sure you’ll enjoy the year-round weather. Attitude of the people - sit at a bar alone and see what kind of convo you have with the person next to you, or spark up a mini convo with a grocery teller, those two conversations will give you an idea. Do you like the housing elevations (not sea level elevation) and floor plans (drastic changes from west to east to mountain to desert).

Carolinas are beautiful. Denver gets tons of days of sunshine. Carolinas make it easier to get to Europe or Bahamas, if that’s you’re jam. Colorado is a little closer for Canada, Mexico, or even South American trips.

Pricing rebounds will happen fastest where there are the most jobs and infrastructure. I’m not as familiar with those two things in Colorado or Carolinas. Texas, Arizona, Florida, and Idaho saw an influx of company HQs moving into them but that doesn’t always correlate to jobs. Go where you’re going to be most happy and enjoy a life not stressed about money as that just adds deeper pressure on familial Happiness. And if you’re married, that could mean a 50% drop in assets, which is more than a 20–30% market correction 😜