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Just letting you guys and girls know that when they mark deaths to covid 19 they a get a extra 20%
from medicare.
I did not know this. Is this confirmed? If so, that's honestly crazy..
 

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Discussion Starter #322
I have to agree with JR on the math. I have been following the statistics and real data from the beginning. There is also a load of evidence that deaths are being way overreported. Unfortunately, if there is monetary and other gain to be had by over reporting then why would they not over report? There is currently no civil or criminal penalty for it so it is all gain no loss for them With thr huge exception that it causes more fear. They have been selling fear since this began. All of the models have been way overestimated and only lowered when they were proven ridiculous. If the numbers are true as they say , why are the death tolls so relatively low in Sweden. They are not true. They are selling an agenda. There is maneuvering to increase spending, institute draconian socialist policies and generally exercise huge control over peoples lives that WAS NOT provided for in the constitution. The total death numbers are in many ways comparable to a bad flu season. Has anyone checked the number of deaths from flu this year? I will bet it is way down as more deaths are attributed to corona. People that are very old and infirm die from lots of things every year. Respiratory disease is a big cause. The numbers however do not warrant the reaction. If 5 or 10% of the population was dying then it would justify complete quarantine. We are talking fractions of a percentage and substantial over reporting. All the data suggests that we are making a mistake. The are likely 30 or 40 million(or more) people either infected, asymptomatic or over it with antibodies. Why are there not more large scale random tests going on? It does not fit the narrative. It would be almost impossible to control people if the truth came out. That is what scares me the most. Is this really about saving lives or seeing how much power the government can grab without us fighting back. I dont think they started the virus but I see way too many examples of abuse of power. I think many officials have used it as a way to gain fame, power and control. The big question is will they give it back once they have it? It is like a new spending program, almost impossible to get rid of. Anytime they start to lose control they start crying Corona and scare people into submission. As I originally stated and have maintained, if we allow the country to be shut down for extended lengths or multiple times, what happens with Corona will be insignificant. The death and destruction to our way of life will be irreversible.
Lee
 

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It seems like it is unanimous to open back up. If they don’t do it soon I’m sure we will see a rebellion. Some owners are already doing it on their own and risking fines or jail. I don’t blame anybody for being desperate at this time. We all have to get along with our lives.
 

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I watched that video and re-posted on FB yesterday, and some other medical professionals were quick to try to discredit him and tear down his assertions. I’m not an expert by any means, simply trying to objectively parse all sides to surmise a “truth”.

Firstly, someone posted a screenshot showing that his physician’s license was “canceled”. Then another Dr posted a rebuttal, which unfortunalty only addressed his local numbers and ignored the larger view he presented.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=129158945403719&id=100553591597588

This link is his area’s “health director” also refuting his assertions:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bakersfieldnow.com/amp/news/local/public-health-responds-to-claims-from-doctors-at-accelerated-urgent-care?fbclid=IwAR0Nr3D0hOKCNL7HD6TbujNQHDjZv4FHAi5JlqwxexBs9aDiqoJLmbWbEf4
LMAO at posters taking the assertions of these 2 Urgent Care quackjobs as fact. These quacks own a chain of Urgent Care Clinics in Cali, their misguided claims are nothing more than a means to drum up business.

Anybody else take Medical Statistics during medical school?

If one did he/she would know that Sampling Bias makes their entire extrapolation of COVID infections and deaths to great California based on their anectodal numbers a load of ****.

Carl T. Bergstrom, a biology professor at the University of Washington, noted on Twitter that the doctors' calculations of COVID-19 having a low death rate were not statistically sound and likened it to "estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court."
 

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Those same Urgent Care clowns do not agree with this guidance to stay at home, practice social distance, and wear a mask.

For those of you eager to heap praise on Sweden, why aren't you sharing similar adulation towards Brazil and Bolsanaro's grand debacle "herd immunity"?

"Brazil is emerging as potentially the next big hot spot for the coronavirus amid President Jair Bolsonaro’s insistence that it is just a "little flu” and that there is no need for the sharp restrictions that have slowed the infection’s spread in Europe and the U.S.

As some U.S. states and European countries moved gradually Monday to ease their limits on movement and commerce, the intensifying outbreak in Brazil — Latin America's biggest country, with 211 million people — pushed some hospitals to the breaking point, with signs that a growing number of victims are now dying at home.

“We have all the conditions here for the pandemic to become much more serious," said Paulo Brandão, a virologist at the University of Sao Paulo.

Brazil officially reported about 4,500 deaths and almost 67,000 confirmed infections. But the true numbers there, as in many other countries, are believed to be vastly higher given the lack of testing and the many people without severe symptoms who haven’t sought hospital care.

Some scientists said over 1 million in Brazil are probably infected. The country is heading into winter, which can worsen respiratory illnesses."
 

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Sampling Bias makes their entire extrapolation of COVID infections and deaths to great California based on their anectodal numbers a load of ****.



likened it to "estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court."

Interesting that everyone who provides a rebuttal focuses exclusively on their CA data, which was only the first 5 or so minutes of a 50 minute video.

In the remaining 40 or so minutes, they cited publicly reported data from many other locales (lockdown and non-lockdown) to make a global case of “millions of cases, small deaths”.

I have been hoping for a more comprehensive rebuttal since I am far from an expert on it all.
 

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Interesting that everyone who provides a rebuttal focuses exclusively on their CA data, which was only the first 5 or so minutes of a 50 minute video.

In the remaining 40 or so minutes, they cited publicly reported data from many other locales (lockdown and non-lockdown) to make a global case of “millions of cases, small deaths”.

I have been hoping for a more comprehensive rebuttal since I am far from an expert on it all.
Why don't you enlighten us with the consolidation of publicly reported data from many other locations that make a compelling case of "millions of cases, small deaths"?

The one thing you're right about is that you're not an expert. Do you have an understanding of Medical Statistics and Sampling Bias?

Bottom line you cannot use 5213 COVID tests at 5 Bakersfield UCs to extrapolate that 4.7 million Californians have the virus and thus the mortality rate is 0.03%.
 

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And the real elephant in the room is these 2 hacks who couldn't even cut it in a real ER or hospital practice (do some research and see what quality of medical student/resident goes into Urgent Care) is that their business has suffered dramatically due to the shelter-in-place regulation as staff are mostly testing for COVID19 these days.
 

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It seems like it is unanimous to open back up. If they don’t do it soon I’m sure we will see a rebellion. Some owners are already doing it on their own and risking fines or jail. I don’t blame anybody for being desperate at this time. We all have to get along with our lives.
Russ do you worry that 25% of those infected 60 years and older on the aina end up hospitalized?

I worry about my parents. If you're in that age demographic it's like playing Russian Roulette but with worse odds IMO.
 

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Surfah- whiles it’s hard to deny that you seem to know what you’re talking about, keep in mind that we as a group are all on the same side. We are all hoping for good news.

Now, I do completely understand sampling bias as well as understand your analogy about extrapolating average American height using a sample of nba players. What I think most of us are trying to bring attention to is a huge sample size. The amount of data we currently have world wide I think is a more than adequate sample size. Can you educate me as to why it currently isn’t? I’m asking honestly because like others, I’m taking information in to form perspective, and ultimately want to be as prepared as possible.
 

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I’d think that 5.5 million tests in the USA was a large enough sample size.
 

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Surfah, and others, this has become a situation where what we were told turned out not to be statistically accurate and therefore we as a society are leery of the figures.

We were told millions would die and then we were told several hundred thousand in the US and then 100,000 and then 60,000. Yes those are big numbers but they were not the numbers we were told originally. We were told this spreads like wildfire but it turns out that we don’t know how it spreads. We were told hospitals would be inundated and respirators would be needed in the tens of thousands except that that didn’t happen either. We were told a navy ship needed to go to New York City except that they got there and only treated dozens or a relatively lower number of patients than we thought before leaving. We were told respirators were needed in the tens of thousands except that New York then didn’t need them and gave them to other states. we were told that the coronavirus comes with massive levels of symptoms except that we find out that the vast, vast majority of people are asymptomatic. We are told a lot of things and then when we voice our opinions we are shouted down by people with one political motivation to keep us all under a shadow.

Fact of the matter is we shut down the entire United States economy. Fact of the matter the people who are dying are highly predisposed to existing conditions. Fact of the matter many people who have been exposed or have gotten the coronavirus are either asymptomatic or have low amounts of symptoms. Fact of the matter the general population of many of the states and in much of the United States overall dutifully complied for four, five and six weeks but now we are getting tired of this. It is very sad that certain pre-existing conditions and including the elderly are harder hit and are dying, and no one refutes that or is non empathetic, however we cannot kill an entire society and an entire economic structure of the world over the fear of people with health conditions and advanced age dying!

This was all to flatten the curve and make sure that hospitals were not inundated and unable to treat the masses, but that never happened either. maybe due to our full compliance with the shutdown procedures this helped to flatten the curve, but at this point enough is enough: pull the plugs on this shut down and get us all back to work.

If that is not good enough of an answer for our society, then let’s have a debate as to how to best solve for this health scare. Do we shut the entire economy down and keep the entire population indoors while the government pays your salary, or do we suggest to a much smaller population subset with pre existing conditions and the elderly to be extra diligent while the rest of the working economy pays for them? Let’s have that debate as a free people, but there is an increasing groundswell of people who were dutifully compliant but are now found to be in a compromised position because they are no longer free. Sadly, the converse is also true that an increasing groundswell of people find themselves in an abnormally powerful position of keeping the rest of us constrained.
 

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No worries JR.

Regarding your first query

"Testing results have struggled with the relative capabilities, testing policies and preparedness of each affected country, making their comparison a non-trivial task. Since severe cases, which more likely lead to fatal outcomes, are detected at a higher rate than mild cases, the reported virus mortality is likely inflated in most countries. Lockdowns and changes in human behavior modulate the underlying growth rate of the virus. Under-sampling of infection cases may lead to the under-estimation of total cases, resulting in systematic mortality estimation biases. For healthcare systems worldwide it is important to know the expected number of cases that will need treatment. In this manuscript, we identify a generalizable growth rate decay reflecting behavioral change. We propose a method to correct the reported COVID-19 cases and death numbers by using a benchmark country (South Korea) with near-optimal testing coverage, with considerations on population demographics. We extrapolate expected deaths and hospitalizations with respect to observations in countries that passed the exponential growth curve.

By applying our correction, we predict that the number of cases is highly under-reported in most countries and a significant burden on worldwide hospital capacity."

Last sentence says it all

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.20036178v2

In addition to sampling bias there are also

"Reporting biases

Perhaps the greatest bias is that cases can only be counted if they seek out medical care or are tested. COVID-19 appears to cause mild or no symptoms in a sizeable proportion of people, which means that the reported counts underestimate the true total number of infected persons. This could also cause biases between countries --- for example, if people are told to stay home unless their disease worsens, then fewer cases will be detected than if people are told to seek medical care for mild symptoms and receive testing for the virus. Also, some countries have tested many individuals systematically, while other countries only test individuals with severe symptoms. This testing strategy, as well as the diagnostic criteria, may also change across time in a given country.

Test accuracy

A perfect diagnostic test would provide a positive result for every infected person, and a negative result for every non-infected person. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to create such a perfect test, so all diagnostic tests will result in some errors. These can either be false positive errors (that is, saying that someone is infected when they are not), or a false negative error (saying that a person is not infected when they actually are). For example, the commonly used rapid tests for flu viruses have false negative rates of 30-70% and false positive rates of about 10%. We don't yet know the error rates for the various testing methods in use for SARS-CoV-2

Population differences

There are differences between populations within and across countries that could affect the spread of the disease. For example, the prevalence of chronic lung diseases (which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 infection) vary between countries and between urban and rural environments. Differences in population density and in local customs (such as hand-shaking or face-kissing greetings) could also affect the rates of disease transmission between different countries. In addition, the age distribution varies across countries, and as a consequence, a larger fraction of the population is at risk in certain countries compared to others."

"Three points on confirmed death figures to keep in mind:

All three points are true for all currently available international data sources on COVID-19 deaths.

the actual total death toll from COVID-19 is likely to be higher than the number of confirmed deaths – this is due to limited testing and problems in the attribution of the cause of death; the difference between reported confirmed deaths and total deaths varies by country

how COVID-19 deaths are recorded may differ between countries (e.g. some countries may only count hospital deaths, whilst others have started to include deaths in homes)

the reported death figures on a given date does not necessarily show the number of new deaths on that day: this is due to delays in reporting."

Regarding your 2nd query while 5.5 million are a lot tested it only represents 1.6% of the US population.

"By one estimate, America may need 35 million Covid-19 tests per day for people to return to work

We now know you can’t effectively fight the coronavirus pandemic without widespread testing to find out who has the disease. Developed countries that have managed to keep their case counts and deaths tolls low or bring them way down — including Iceland, Germany, and South Korea — have generally tested a greater proportion of their population than the United States.

It’s especially critical for finding those people who may be spreading the virus without showing symptoms.

"One of the lower-end benchmarks estimates the US will need 750,000 tests per week. The high-end proposal, from Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, starts at 22 million tests per day and goes up. And not just one test per person, but repeated testing over time.

Test millions. Test early. Test late. Test over and over. Test until the whole damn pandemic is over.

Following through on this would require a massive increase in government funding, huge numbers of workers trained to administer the tests, and the coordination of raw materials, manufacturing, and delivery across the entire global economy. It’s a costly, brute-force approach. But it may be the only way out of the expensive and blunt measures already deployed to control the pandemic, from social distancing to shelter-in-place orders.

Right now, however, the US is struggling to test even 100,000 people per day, so getting to the scale some researchers suggest would demand a huge ramp up in capacity. Yet, they say, it’s possible to do it. And despite the immense financial and social costs of a national testing system, it may yet be the cheapest path to reopening the economy.

Why testing is so critical to controlling the Covid-19 pandemic

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is almost perfectly optimized to infect huge swaths of a population.

For one, it can spread directly and easily between people in close contact. Yet the symptoms of Covid-19 can be confusing, varying person to person, making it tricky to identify suspected cases. Meanwhile, asymptomatic carriers — up to half of the total number infected — can spread the virus unwittingly for weeks, triggering outbreaks in their wake.

The virus can also turn dangerous and deadly in some people, particularly high-risk populations. But it can also be dangerous in a small percentage of otherwise healthy people.

While most can fight off the infection on their own, an epidemic like the one the US is facing with hundreds of thousands of infected people means tens of thousands will need to be hospitalized. Those patients in urgent or critical care can then spread the virus to health workers — a particular problem because of the shortage of personal protective gear — who end up sidelined and further strain the capacity of the health system to care for the sick.

And since it’s a new virus, there is no cure, vaccine, or widespread immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

Controlling the spread of the pandemic, then, demands finding the infected and isolating them until they can no longer spread the disease, alongside broader measures like social distancing. With an untold number of asymptomatic carriers, the only option to find out who truly has the virus is to test."

Finally herd immunity based on exposure to infected rather than a vaccine is idiocy because having antibodies to the virus doesnt guarantee immunity. Think about it. Why is a new influenza vaccine required annually every flu season?

Trust me JR the second wave of COVID19 this winter coinciding with the peak influenza season may make this first wave of infection mild in comparison in the abscence of any effective treatment , cure or vaccine.
 

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Im all for economic recovery but slowly and in phases with strict social distancing measures, isolation of the infected and thorough contact tracing especially until widespread testing first,effective treatment/cure second and a vaccine third.

However covidiots want to pretend that the pandemic is behind us, enough is enough lets flip the light switch and all go back to work like the way it was.

Especially those expousing the laughable recommendations by those two Urgent Care quacks that masks and social distancing arent necessary.

Those covidiots deserve whats coming to them. Social distancing is harmful to immunity? LMAO.

Darwinism will take care of those fools and any who believe its safe to get rid of social distancing and everyone to go back to work immediately.

Look at Singapore and Sri Lanka to see what happens when social distancing is prematurely relaxed. Sri Lanka didnt even last 4 days before they reinstituted the 24 curfew after a surge of reported cases.

Singapore was praised as a model of controlling the pandemic now COVID is running rampant amongst migrant workers living in crowded dormitories.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-04-24/singapore-sees-second-wave-of-coronavirus-with-900-new-cases

Singapore's second wave may be an alarming glimpse of whats in store for the US.
 

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This error doesn’t help.

 

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This error doesn’t help.

That one is pretty funny, but not as funny as when Dr. Phil said 380,000 people die every year in swimming pools??? WTF I started looking real suspiciously at my pool after that. In case your wondering the number is around 4000, he was just a bit off.
Oh there was a TV poll yesterday on the news, 70% of those who responded favored staying in isolation and I live in a very pro Trump area.
 

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LMAO at posters taking the assertions of these 2 Urgent Care quackjobs as fact. These quacks own a chain of Urgent Care Clinics in Cali, their misguided claims are nothing more than a means to drum up business.

Anybody else take Medical Statistics during medical school?

If one did he/she would know that Sampling Bias makes their entire extrapolation of COVID infections and deaths to great California based on their anectodal numbers a load of ****.

Carl T. Bergstrom, a biology professor at the University of Washington, noted on Twitter that the doctors' calculations of COVID-19 having a low death rate were not statistically sound and likened it to "estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court."
Ok. Let’s assume they are quacks. Better still, let’s say that they are complete idiots. Does that necessarily mean that all of their assertions are wrong?

I’m not a “expert” or medical professional or scientist or propellor head. I just own businesses. Here are my conclusions:

1). The true fatality rate is much lower than we were initially led to believe. Indeed, it’s not even close (3.4% WHO initially, 1-2.0% CDC initially, to Stanford telling us it’s 0.1-0.2%).

2). The economic consequences of the shut down might well offset any potential health gains. Everyone understands that for each 1% increase in unemployment there are a certain amount of additional suicides and various other adverse health effects.

3). The shut downs probably did not need to be universally applied. A restaurant worker in Montana probably should not have lost their job. A business owner in rural North Dakota probably did not need to see their business go under and with it their dreams for a better life.

And almost worst than all of the above, is the fact that everyone who agrees is immediately shot down and accused of being heartless capitalists.

Meanwhile, our enemies are observing our response. They no longer see strength, resilience, and ferocity in our great nation. Instead, they see our great nation brought to its knees by a silly little pathogen. The see us scared, weak, and now impoverished. Don’t think for a second that they are not learning valuable lessons from this. Don’t think that our security has not been compromised.

Last thought, what happens when China sends us the new and improved version of their customized flu?
 

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I will agree it’s definitely not a good thing. My favorite gym, it’s golds gym local to me that I absolutely love says they are closing for good - if they can’t open by June 1 as the owner is out of money.
 

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Thanks for all the info.

What’s most confusing to me is that up to 50% of people are asymptomatic as you said, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that our sample size can be used to estimate the numbers. Now, I did say estimate and I think it would be more accurate than Fauchi who has been completely wrong. Remember he initially said millions will die.

Let’s ask the real questions.

-Why when all these orders have been put in place to slow the spread and relieve our hospitals of being over crowded, so we not reverse any of the measure when the hospitals are no where near full?

-Why are we quarantining the healthy, and not only the sick?

I understand your point as to why the data sample might be a bit small in comparison to the 330 million total Americans to make assumptions, but don’t you think that it’s better to extrapolate rather than estimate blindly? Fauchi couldn’t have been more wrong on his estimates. Not mad at it but extreme measures were put in place over those estimates. Would hey have been i even considered to be put in place if they announced months ago that in the next few months there might be 50k deaths ? I personally think no.

Last, you yourself did say that up to 50% of people are asymptomatic. So simply based on that and that alone it’s safe to assume that the number is far greater that have had it. Also it’s safe to assume that many with symptoms have already had it and simply passed it off as the flu(me included) since death is the constant, that would ultimately bring down the death rate significantly. I won’t speculate but I think you can see what i mean.

I think that assuming death rate is higher Is wrong. I think we can assume that many deaths are being reported as covid but they are in fact due to their underlying condition with complications due to covid. If you are a cancer patient doing chemo therapy and die of a common cold due to an infection, the cold didn’t cause your death. Your body is compromised due to your cancer and the cause of death if you ask me is cancer.

This is my position. Do I think this is like the common flu? Not in terms of severity I don’t. I’d much prefer the flu. Do I think that the closure of the world economy justifies the end result? Can’t get there unfortunately.
 

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Surfah, you make some good points for debate and thoughtful consideration. Then you completely invalidated those when you call those who disagree with you “Covidiots”.

Why is it when the common man questions the ruling class due to the lack of accurate facts and or due to overly restrictive edicts based on those dubious facts that they are branded idiots? What word applies to the power grabbing ruling class who overreact based on data but don’t then after that data is proven wrong give back the power they just demanded?
 
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